why aren't all 48 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Feldman: Nvidia CUDA lost 70% of frontier AI model training market share
“I think two years ago every state of the art model was trained in a Cuda flow. And right now, Gemini is trained without Cuda. Anthropical is trained without Cuda. Open AI as strange as could. So in a one or two year period, they lost 70% share. Of training mod…”
Insight
Socher: Nvidia will match AI hardware startups' 100x gains before startups reach scale
“By the time you get that out and it's actually scalable and it can really train it and all the software is ready for it. And I can now go on AWS and spawn up your new hardware, like, Nvidia will also have been a hundred X faster with their latest and greatest …”
Opinion
Balaban: NVIDIA's real software moat is cuDNN, not just CUDA
“One of the big moats they've got is just The QDNN stack. It's not just CUDA. It's, you know, CUDA is sure. That's like the water we all swim, but like CUDNN has got so many, you know, matrix multiplication, routine optimizations baked into it.”
Assertion Partly supported
Patel: Chinese local governments, not national, banned Nvidia's H20 and H200
“But as far as I understand, the national government has not banned Nvidia's H-twenty or H-two hundred, but the local ones have. Right. A lot of local ones have said, no, you know, you must use China manufactured chips.”
Insight
Patel: Chip startups cannot beat Nvidia playing Nvidia's game
“You're never going to beat Nvidia at their own game, right? They're going to have the supply chain on lock. They're going to get to the newest memory technology or process technology or whatever packaging technology, whatever it is, sooner than you.”
Assertion Supported
Buying Nvidia stock instead of funding AI chip rivals yielded 4x more
“Six billion turned into thirty billion roughly, of which half is CameraCon, which is a Chinese listed company. And then NVIDIA would be worth a hundred and twenty billion.”
Disclosure
Lamini's hosted service ran exclusively on AMD GPUs for a year
“The Lamini hosted service over the past year has been running on AMD GPUs only. We haven't been running on NVIDIA chips.”
Disclosure
Wolf: Hugging Face Used Quantized GLM 5.2 Against OpenAI Intrusion
“The model we use to counter open AI intrusion was GNM 5.2 that was quantized by Nvidia in, in, in four bits.”
Assertion Supported
Catanzaro: Nemotron 3's Latent MoE quadruples experts for same inference cost
“Latent MOE is a specific innovation that we have in NemoTron three family. And what it does is actually reduces the amount of communication that has to be sent through NVLink during MOE computations by basically down projecting it. So, you know, every token pr…”
Assertion Supported
NVIDIA pre-trained Nemotron Ultra and Super natively using 4-bit floating point
“NemoTron Ultra and Super, ah, were pre-trained using four-bit arithmetic. We pre-trained those in MVFP four”
Assertion Partly supported
Prince: Cloudflare re-issued a years-old Nvidia press release and stock doubled
“And hilariously, like two or three years later in 2024, we, and you can look this up, we actually issued the exact same press release, just changed the date, and our stock doubled.”
Assertion Supported
Patel: Nvidia is backstopping CoreWeave's land and power capital needs
“NVIDIA invested two billion in CoreWeave, but what's more important is that that's like sort of just like the sticker. What's really relevant is NVIDIA is going to work with CoreWeave to acquire and backstop and all these things, the land, the power, the energ…”
Opinion
Patel: Concerns over AI circular financing and debt are overblown
“I think it's completely fine, and I think, like, people are, like, freaking out and making narratives where there really shouldn't be one.”
Assertion Supported
Patel: TSMC is actively manufacturing chips in Arizona for Nvidia, Apple, and AMD
“TSMC is literally making chips for NVIDIA and Apple and AMD and others in Arizona today, right?”
Assertion Supported
NVIDIA stock outperformed private AI chip startup investments 12x to 2x
“If you bought NVIDIA stock on the day of the announcement of all the, like, private rounds in these companies, what would the value of your stock be in NVIDIA versus these companies? And if I recall correctly, it's basically 12 X in NVIDIA versus two X in in t…”
Assertion Supported
NVIDIA's sovereign AI business generates around $20 billion in revenue
“Nvidia has even started marketing this as like a new kind of product line basically for its business that currently generates, I think, around twenty billion dollars worth so it's real money”
Assertion Supported
Nvidia chips appear in 11x more AI research papers than all competitors
“If you sum all the papers that use NVIDIA chips versus all the papers that use TPUs, FPGAs, ASICs, Apple, Huawei, the sum of all NVIDIA papers versus the sum of everybody else, the delta is like 11 times.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shah: Julia is the only non-C language with native CUDA codegen
“Apart from CUDA and C, the toolkits that NVIDIA puts out, Julia is the only other, you know, widely used language that has native CUDA code gen.”
Disclosure
Catanzaro: NVIDIA's Applied Deep Learning team sits inside GPU division
“My team, for example, is not part of the official NVIDIA research team. My team is actually part of the organization that builds the GPU.”
Disclosure
NVIDIA purchases commercial datasets and opens them when licensing permits
“We do purchase data from companies that that, you know, are building data sets that you can purchase. And to the extent that, you know, we have the rights to redistribute or to open up that data, we do as part of our Mnemotron data effort.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
NVIDIA DLSS Is About 10 Times More Efficient Than Traditional Rendering
“DLSS is our real-time AI for graphics, and it makes a small GPU run like a big GPU. It's about 10 times more efficient because rather than computing the color of every pixel for every frame, we use AI to infer the color.”
Assertion Partly supported
Catanzaro: Hybrid state-space transformer architectures are widely adopted in frontier AI
“It's become, I think, Quite widely adopted to use some sort of state space model in conjunction with full attention for the base architecture.”
Insight
Catanzaro: Any development or deployment of AI benefits NVIDIA's business
“Whenever AI is further developed and further deployed. It's an opportunity for our business. So, so this is you know, we're very explicitly trying to develop our ecosystem because that's good business for us.”
Assertion Supported
NVIDIA DLSS Generates 23 Out of Every 24 Pixels in Games
“These days, 23 out of every 24 pixels is being generated by our AI model when you're using DLSS to play games”
Disclosure
NVIDIA uses massive compute to generate and publicly release synthetic data
“We also are big believers in synthetic data generation. We use an enormous amount of compute running language models on our own systems to create synthetic data that then helps our models be better at solving problems in specific domains, and we release a lot …”
Assertion Supported
Catanzaro: Combining SSMs and transformers produces smarter AI models than either alone
“Using both of these together was actually better than using either one on their own. And that is independent of the speed benefit. That is just the model is smarter.”
Assertion Partly supported
Balaban: NVIDIA is the only chip provider in every major cloud
“They're the only server provider, the only chip provider that is available in every single major cloud platform, which is a huge platform advantage.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Fu predicts increasing hardware diversity, particularly for AI model inference
“I'm sure NVIDIA will still do great and still grow beyond their five trillion dollar company or whatever it is at the time of recording. But I think you're going to see a lot more diversity especially around, I think inference of the model.”
Assertion Supported
NVIDIA chips power 90% of open-source AI research papers
“If you do that analysis, you basically find that 90% of all papers make use of a NVIDIA chip.”
Assertion Supported
Evans: Nvidia sells integrated computer systems, not just GPU chips
“People still think of NVIDIA as making GPUs in the sense that they make chips and sell chips. That's not what they do. They sell computers. They sell custom computers, kind of like Sun Microsystems did with a whole networking stack and a software stack on top …”
Assertion Supported
Borgman: Dell is selling massive quantities of on-prem AI servers
“They're selling, selling a ton of servers right now, AI servers, which are basically, you know, have a lot of GPUs in them, a lot of NVIDIA products in there, and are seeing customers that are trying to get economies of scale by deploying that infrastructure o…”
Assertion Supported
Nvidia released an AI model that outperformed GPT-4
“Just a couple of weeks ago, Nvidia announced that In addition to having the best chips, they just released a model that was actually better than GPT-IV.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Over 2,000 companies, including NVIDIA, use Hugging Face's Enterprise Hub
“We have over 2000 companies using the enterprise hub today from kind of like Mercedes, Bloomberg all the way to larger ones like Nvidia, for example, that I was mentioning.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Microsoft and NVIDIA are massive Hugging Face enterprise customers
“When you think about Microsoft, when you think about NVIDIA all, all these companies are massive customers of ours.”
Insight
GPU cloud providers resemble REITs, requiring heavy debt and Nvidia ties
“I think you really need to be pretty sophisticated when it comes to financial engineering, what kind of debt products that you use. Kind of like a REIT, a real estate investment trust, and that you'll, you'll produce really good profits, but you need a lot of …”
Opinion
VAST Data considers NVIDIA its strongest and most natural partner
“NVIDIA, I would say, is our best and most natural partner.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Socher: Larger Nvidia GPUs will enable running bigger LLMs on single GPUs
“There's just beyond a certain size that started running on a single GPU, but that will also change in the future as Nvidia you know, builds larger and larger memory GPUs so that you can then run log and log your language models on a single GPU, and so that wil…”
Assertion Supported
NVIDIA details Nemotron 3 parameter specs from 3B to 55B active
“Nano is a thirty billion total three billion active parameter model. Super is one 20 and 12, and Ultra is five 50 and 55.”
Assertion Supported
Catanzaro: cuDNN was NVIDIA's first GPU deep learning product
“Then that led to the creation of QDNN, which was NVIDIA's first product for deep learning on the GPU.”
Assertion Supported
Catanzaro: NVIDIA post-trained Nemotron-3 Ultra using multi-domain on-policy distillation
“So with Nemo Tron three ultra, we did post-training using something called multi-domain on policy distillation.”
Assertion Supported
Catanzaro: NVIDIA used 10 to 15 teacher models for Nemotron-3 distillation
“There's with NemoTron three, I think we had about 10, 10 or 15 of these teachers.”
Assertion Supported
Evans: Nvidia hit over $70B in trailing 12-month free cash flow
“I mean, I haven't looked at, I haven't updated my number here, but like, I think Q three last year, I think NVIDIA had something over seventy billion dollars of trading 12 months free cash flow.”
Disclosure
Patel: SemiAnalysis runs InferenceMax benchmark on $60M of donated GPUs
“It's called inferencemax. It's open source. All the code is and the results are, but we run across, I think, sixty million dollars of GPUs, which are donated to us by companies like Nvidia, AMD, OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Crusoe, CoreWeave, Together AI.”
Disclosure
Patel advised Enfabrica during its transaction with Nvidia
“This happened for a company. I was an advisor for NVIDIA acquired in Fabrica just maybe a few months before they did Grok and similar style of deal, right?”
Assertion Supported
Nvidia generates $53 billion net income on $96 billion revenue
“It's a ninety six billion revenue company that generates fifty three billion in, in net income.”
Disclosure
NVIDIA is a corporate investor in VAST Data
“They're also an investor in us.”
Disclosure
Google, Qualcomm, and Nvidia are strategic investors in Clarifai
“We got some great investors like Google, Qualcomm, and NVIDIA who help power this technology for us.”
Assertion Partly supported
Catanzaro: NVIDIA's first major AI model was built jointly with Microsoft
“Our first big model that we trained, we did with Microsoft, right? It was a joint effort where NVIDIA and Microsoft researchers worked side by side to build that.”