why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Feldman: Nvidia CUDA lost 70% of frontier AI model training market share
“I think two years ago every state of the art model was trained in a Cuda flow. And right now, Gemini is trained without Cuda. Anthropical is trained without Cuda. Open AI as strange as could. So in a one or two year period, they lost 70% share. Of training mod…”
Opinion
Srinivas: Google is making a mistake chasing OpenAI with Gemini
“Hence why, like, you know, I actually think Google is making a big mistake by trying to do whatever OpenAI is doing, right, like, going after them with the large, oh, I'm not, they're having GPT-IV, I'm going to turn Gemini.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ramaswamy: Google Gemini won't become a hit unless 10x better than ChatGPT
“They can't make Gemini into a consumer hit unless it's 10 times better than ChatGPT, and that's a really tall order.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Evans: No one will vibe code their own ERP software
“No, no one will vibe code their own ERP or their own frame.io, but they may ask Anthropic or Gemini or ChatGPT, can you do this thing for me?”
Insight
Enterprises should transition from generalist LLMs to cheaper task-specific models
“If you have a business problem, you are maybe manufacturing something, maybe you can start with a generalist model, but then once you know exactly what the task is and you want to hone in on it, maybe it makes sense to replace that expensive thing by something…”
Opinion
Leading generalist models like ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude show functional parity
“Like if you use or compare ChatGPT, Gemini Claude, Grock. I think they are all pretty much on the same level. Like, and I think that's because they're trying to do everything. Like the generalist models for a general person to do a lot of things. I mean, Claud…”
Disclosure
Stripe partners with Google for direct checkout inside Gemini
“We recently partnered with Google. So merchants can sell right inside AI mode and the Gemini app. So, you know, maybe you shop at JD sports cause I was on the topic of running shoes or fanatics or quince. Those were all early adopters.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bourgeau: Gemini answers computer science benchmark questions taking humans significant time
“They are becoming increasingly difficult, and even for me, who has a background in computer science, some of the questions the model answers, it would take me a significant amount of time to answer.”
Disclosure
Bourgeau: DeepMind shifted focus from pure research to research engineering
“And I think that's a mindset that has really evolved over the last few years at DeepMind, especially where maybe there was a bit more of the traditional research mindset before, and now with Gemini, it's really more about research engineering.”
Disclosure
Bourgeau works with 150 to 200 people on Gemini pre-training
“So it's a fairly large team at this point. It's a bit hard to quantify exactly, but maybe a 152 hundred people I work on a day-to-day on the pre-training side between data, model, infrastructure, evals, and so coordinating the work of all of these people into …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Douglas: DeepMind has 1,000 on Gemini and 10,000 on foundational research
“But if you look, Gemini is like, you know, a thousand people, there's a, there's still like 10,000 plus people doing all kinds of really like longterm foundational research at DMI.”
Assertion Supported
Hierarchical Reasoning Model matches larger LLMs on ARC using Transformer architecture
“Hierarchical reasoning model, it became like popular because it performed relatively well on that benchmark compared to very expensive models like Gemini, Chachupiti, and so forth. And it is a transformer architecture.”
Disclosure
Laskin: Google Gemini's initial RLHF team was only 10 to 20 people
“I joined a small project at the time that you know, was tens of people. And that project became Gemini one and 1.5, and then obviously two and so forth. And I joined with my co-founder, my co-founder, Yannis was leading the reinforcement learning team, the RLE…”
Disclosure
Levie: Box officially supports Gemini, Anthropic, and OpenAI models
“We officially support Gemini family. We support anthropic, you know, variety of cloud models and then support open AI and the GPTs.”