The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Bourgeau: Google and DeepMind are actively researching post-Transformer architectures
“I believe so. There's groups doing research on the model architecture side, for sure, within Google and within DeepMind”
Douglas predicts DeepMind will lead the world in AI science discoveries
“DeepMind, if you wanted to solve science, is the best place in the world. Like, I think that DeepMind will directly contribute to more scientific discoveries from AI than anything else, right?”
Laskin: Reflection AI regularly beats OpenAI, Anthropic, and DeepMind for talent
“We win over candidates over OpenAI and Anthropic Meta, DeepMind regularly.”
DeepMind's reinforcement learning fails on minor visual changes while Vicarious succeeds
“So if you use, ah, if you compare, ah, Vicarious, ah, system with, ah, DeepMind system, ah, for example, if you change the brightness of the screen DeepMind system will stop playing, ah, because it will, ah, get confused, ah, and if you offset the paddle we ou…”
Douglas: Anthropic intentionally deprioritized math reasoning unlike OpenAI and DeepMind
“You know, one thing that Anthropik, like, You noticeably hasn't focused on compared to DeepMind and to OpenAI is is mathematical reasoning, right? DeepMind and OpenAI have been pursuing mathematical reasoning because of the implications for science and for sci…”
DeepMind AI discovered unknown biological differences between male and female retinas
“DeepMind did a project with Moorfields, which is iHospital in the UK. And they were looking at retinas. And their system discovered a difference between male and female retinas, and apparently medical science didn't actually know there was a difference between…”
DeepMind's Bourgeau predicts major AI-driven scientific breakthroughs within years
“I think we will be able to make some large scientific discoveries in the next few years.”
Bourgeau: Early DeepMind research defaulted to synthetic data over real-world data
“And at the time we had to add this from real world data to the name of the project, because people would assume otherwise it would be synthetic environments or synthetic data. And that definitely has shifted completely since then.”
DeepMind reasoning models identified disease targets validated in wet labs
“And so DeepMind has shown that you can integrate this kind of reasoning model to sort of decipher new targets for disease, new mechanisms that were actually also proven in a wet lab scenario post facto.”
OpenAI and DeepMind achieved Math Olympiad gold medals
“And, you know, we saw gold medals on the International Math Olympiad by a couple of labs, including OpenAI and DeepMind.”
Laskin: Pre-LLM AI breakthroughs spent more effort on environment design than model training
“And a lot of the project was in these big projects was not even on training the models. It was figuring out how the agents should actually interface with the environment that you're training it in.”
Marcus: DeepMind's deep RL required millions of data points per game
“This is what DeepMind used in their systems, and they used a version called deep reinforcement learning. And what they did is they collected billions or, you know, probably millions of data points for each game.”
Douglas: Top AI labs give researchers months to explore unproven ideas
“It's one of the things that at both Anthropic and at DeepMind we really tried to build, which is like a culture of safe experimentation where People were trusted to explore ideas for a long time out in the wild. Cause you often need months of independent resea…”
Laskin: Google Gemini's initial RLHF team was only 10 to 20 people
“I joined a small project at the time that you know, was tens of people. And that project became Gemini one and 1.5, and then obviously two and so forth. And I joined with my co-founder, my co-founder, Yannis was leading the reinforcement learning team, the RLE…”