The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Evans: OpenAI has 900M weekly active users, but only 5% pay
“You've got nine hundred million weekly active users, but most of them are not using it every day and can't think of anything to do with it. And only five percent of them are paying for it.”
Ratner: $200 of ChatGPT calls can clone closed models into open ones
“If you take a couple hundred bucks of API calls to, say, ChatGPT, and you graph that onto a model that is substantially smaller, say a seven billion parameter model like LLAMA, or now increasingly fully open for commercial use ones, like Red Pajama is one that…”
ChatGPT disproved an Erdős conjecture using cross-disciplinary mathematical reasoning
“The big result was that this conjecture of this lower bound for the number of pairs that you can make is, is false. Not only is it false, it was false due to a really interesting connection to another field of mathematics.”
Evans: Submitting 1,000 prompts placed ChatGPT users in top 20%
“Turns out that if you did a thousand posts, if you did a thousand prompts last year, you're in the top 20%.”
A large cohort of internet users has replaced search engines with ChatGPT
“There's a whole cohort of humans that have already largely replaced a very, very large proportion of their traditional search behavior on search engines from looking through these search engine results pages to just trusting the answers that that come out of C…”
39% of Americans use ChatGPT and 28% use it at work
“39% of Americans say that they use ChatGPT, including 28% that say that they use it at work, and 11% use it every day.”
Zhou: Fine-tuning transformed GPT-3 into ChatGPT
“Fine tuning is the technology that got from a research project in 2020 called GPT-III and turned that into ChatGPT, a billion dollar app, right?”
Hierarchical Reasoning Model matches larger LLMs on ARC using Transformer architecture
“Hierarchical reasoning model, it became like popular because it performed relatively well on that benchmark compared to very expensive models like Gemini, Chachupiti, and so forth. And it is a transformer architecture.”
Evans: ChatGPT usage on Google Trends drops sharply in summer and Christmas
“I mean, it's funny if you look at Google Trends. There's a big sag in the summer and then a big sag in the Christmas week.”