Azeem Azhar, author of Exponential View, explains how solar and battery technologies shift energy economics from volatile commodity extraction to declining technology cost curves.
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Azhar: Studies lack adequate causal evidence that social media harms public discourse
“There's more evidence from the digital humanities, the digital social scientists to say that we don't have adequate causal evidence That social media has actually come in and soils the public sphere with quite the degree that we thought it did four or five yea…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2029
Azeem Azhar: 75% of people will use AI daily by 2029
“I think you have to be making quite a bold and, you know, heterodox claim to say that we won't all, by which I mean, 75% of us, be using these things daily in less than seven years from when ChatGPT launched, which was November the 22. And, ah, and that means …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Azhar: AI cognitive assistants will break existing corporate decision-making frameworks
“When you start to put in people using LLens in the right kind of ways as cognitive assistance, as part of a greater collective intelligence across a company's entire corpus of Codified knowledge. And also you bring people to the, to bear with their uncodified …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Azeem Azhar: AGI is not two years away
“The reason why Those might not matter is if you really believe you're two years away from AGI and AGI is only two years away from ASI. So none, none of this matters, but I, you know, I personally don't believe that, right? I think we've got, you know, kind of …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Azhar: Drone swarms will scale to tens of thousands via software
“So we start to see drone swarms of 20. Well, getting to 200 is not going to be that hard because it's now a software. Getting from 200 to 2000 is not going to be that hard. Getting from 2000 to 20,000 and so on.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Azhar: Companies ignoring AI and automation shed jobs, while adopters grow
“That the data seems to show is that companies who invest in robotics, automation, AI grow. But it's companies that don't that shed the job.”