Ryan Greenblatt, Chief Scientist at Redwood Research, discusses with Matt Turck how government regulations may incentivize AI labs to restrict model access.
“I think that a bunch of likely government action at least seems to push in favor of AI companies keeping their models internal and not deploying them, which I think for the risks that I'm most worried about doesn't help and in fact is anti-helpful”
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More from Ryan Greenblatt
PredictionOpen · timeframe Dec 2029
Misaligned AI will competently scheme and take over in 2029
“And then it turned out that somewhere along this transition, so at some point in 20, 29, you went from AIs that were kind of misaligned and reward hacky and sloppy and weren't really trying to do the right thing to AIs that are like competently scheming agains…”
Ryan GreenblattAug 27, 2026▶ 1:17:25AI Could Take Over in 2029. Is It Already Too Late?
PredictionNot checkable as stated
AI research and development will be fully automated by early 2029
“In terms of what I would recommend people plan as though is happening, I think I would recommend planning as though full automation of AR and D maybe. Start of year, 20, 29, maybe earlier. And then also AR and D being like quite, quite automated by 20, 28, pos…”
Ryan GreenblattAug 27, 2026▶ 18:36AI Could Take Over in 2029. Is It Already Too Late?
Opinion
AI CEOs lack clear plans to prevent an AI takeover
“I think that the AI company CEOs understand that they're on the path of building wildly smarter than human systems, like super intelligent AI systems. They understand that we don't really have a like clear thought through plan for how to manage the risks from …”
Ryan GreenblattAug 27, 2026▶ 1:51AI Could Take Over in 2029. Is It Already Too Late?
Insight
Frontier AI safety coordination requires slowing down China
“And then I think another aspect of this is specifically doing this in a way where part of the story is either slowing down China or cutting a deal with China such that China doesn't overtake and, you know, break this whole proposal.”
Ryan GreenblattAug 27, 2026▶ 4:54AI Could Take Over in 2029. Is It Already Too Late?
PredictionNot checkable as stated
Automating AI research and hardware manufacturing enables AI takeovers
“If AIs could just automate AIR&D and automate, like, sort of the industrial process of building more computers, then you could quickly end up in a In a process where sort of like robots are building robots and the whole world is greatly transformed. And that v…”
Ryan GreenblattAug 27, 2026▶ 12:58AI Could Take Over in 2029. Is It Already Too Late?
AssertionNot checkable as stated
AI has produced the vast majority of recent major mathematical breakthroughs
“Like, I don't think it's the case that most people in like DC would correctly answer that like the largest mathematical breakthroughs over the last two months have vast majority been from AI, which my understanding is that's true. At least if you measure size …”
Ryan GreenblattAug 27, 2026▶ 21:01AI Could Take Over in 2029. Is It Already Too Late?
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