Ryan Greenblatt, Chief Scientist at Redwood Research, discusses why frontier AI lab leaders continue building superintelligence despite acknowledging the absence of validated control mechanisms.
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2029
Misaligned AI will competently scheme and take over in 2029
“And then it turned out that somewhere along this transition, so at some point in 20, 29, you went from AIs that were kind of misaligned and reward hacky and sloppy and weren't really trying to do the right thing to AIs that are like competently scheming agains…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI research and development will be fully automated by early 2029
“In terms of what I would recommend people plan as though is happening, I think I would recommend planning as though full automation of AR and D maybe. Start of year, 20, 29, maybe earlier. And then also AR and D being like quite, quite automated by 20, 28, pos…”
Insight
Frontier AI safety coordination requires slowing down China
“And then I think another aspect of this is specifically doing this in a way where part of the story is either slowing down China or cutting a deal with China such that China doesn't overtake and, you know, break this whole proposal.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Automating AI research and hardware manufacturing enables AI takeovers
“If AIs could just automate AIR&D and automate, like, sort of the industrial process of building more computers, then you could quickly end up in a In a process where sort of like robots are building robots and the whole world is greatly transformed. And that v…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
AI has produced the vast majority of recent major mathematical breakthroughs
“Like, I don't think it's the case that most people in like DC would correctly answer that like the largest mathematical breakthroughs over the last two months have vast majority been from AI, which my understanding is that's true. At least if you measure size …”
Disclosure
US could use cyber sabotage to slow Chinese AI progress
“Plan B is the branch where we try to, where the U.S. Tries to slow down China. Where the most obvious mechanisms would be things like export controls, but potentially they could get more escalatory than that. Meaning sabotage. Yeah, sabotage like, yeah, like c…”