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Mike Olson

Co-Founder & Chairman, Cloudera · 1 appearance on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

14statements → 9claims → 5claims resolved → 80%fully supported → 4.07/5average certainty → 2.07/5average debate potential → ≈4.0/5argument clarity, estimated → 3said about them ↓

4 supported 1 partly supported 0 contradicted 4 not checkable as stated how the 9 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

3 predictions · 6 assertions · 3 insights · 2 disclosures · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 9 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 5 are resolved, and 4 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Mike argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Prediction Held up
Majority of big data market spend will go to applications, not platforms
“The lion's share of the money spent in the market Is going to be for apps, not for the platform.”
Mike Olson Dec 18, 2014 ▶ 28:57 Mike Olson, Cloudera // The Cloudera Story (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
none yet certainty 3
88% certainty 4
100% certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

How they sound: speaking style how? →

238 words/min while actually speaking · 34.7 um and uh per 1k words

No argument clarity score for Mike Olson: only 6 usable question→answer exchanges on raw tape (a fair score needs 8+). We do not score a sample that small. Roundtable and news formats yield far fewer direct exchanges than interviews. Their coarse estimate from 6 raw tape exchanges is ≈4.0/5, shown at half point precision because the sample is small.

Measured by listening to the audio itself: 5,251 words across 1 episode of raw-level tape, transcribed verbatim with every um and uh kept, each one attributed only where the alignment onto our timed stream is unambiguous. These are measurements of speaking style. We do not rank them: across this corpus, fluency and argument quality are nearly uncorrelated (ρ≈0.2), and smooth talking does not signal clear thinking. How it's measured →

Everything Mike Olson said on the MAD Podcast that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mike Olson predicts MapReduce compute cycles in Hadoop clusters will approach zero
“I think the percentage of cycles spent on MapReduce in Hadoop clusters generally is going to asymptotically approach zero. That's not because there will be less MapReduce happening, but because there will be so much of the other stuff happening.”
Mike Olson Dec 18, 2014 ▶ 10:45 Mike Olson, Cloudera // The Cloudera Story (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)
Insight
Cloudera uses proprietary management tools to prevent commoditization by large vendors
“Because we've got some management monitoring administrative tools That the big, well-capitalized vendors can't simply pick up and use against us. We've got a reason for customers to come and talk to us. It's not really about lock-in. It's about lock-out for IB…”
Mike Olson Dec 18, 2014 ▶ 16:40 Mike Olson, Cloudera // The Cloudera Story (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Big data market has the potential to surpass relational database market size
“I think that there's an opportunity for the big data market to be much bigger than the relational database market was, right?”
Mike Olson Dec 18, 2014 ▶ 21:33 Mike Olson, Cloudera // The Cloudera Story (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)
Insight
Only hybrid open-source models generate sufficient margins to fund platform innovation
“I am convinced that Only a hybrid company can basically generate the revenues and the margins that allow us to invest forward in innovation in the platform.”
Mike Olson Dec 18, 2014 ▶ 24:36 Mike Olson, Cloudera // The Cloudera Story (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)
Prediction Held up
Majority of big data market spend will go to applications, not platforms
“The lion's share of the money spent in the market Is going to be for apps, not for the platform.”
Mike Olson Dec 18, 2014 ▶ 28:57 Mike Olson, Cloudera // The Cloudera Story (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)
Insight
Hadoop was designed for new data problems, not relational database issues
“What we didn't understand at the time, and it's been a pretty common feeling, is Hadoop wasn't built to solve the problem we'd been solving with relational databases. It was designed to solve a new problem, and it turned out that new problem was going to be ve…”
Mike Olson Dec 18, 2014 ▶ 5:10 Mike Olson, Cloudera // The Cloudera Story (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hadoop's shared-nothing architecture does not easily translate to OLAP or OLTP workloads
“Hadoop, this big scale-out, shared-nothing architecture, is good at much, but that architecture doesn't easily translate into OLAP or OLTP workloads.”
Mike Olson Dec 18, 2014 ▶ 8:45 Mike Olson, Cloudera // The Cloudera Story (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)
Assertion Supported
Intel acquired an 18 percent equity stake in Cloudera for $740 million
“Intel spent seven hundred forty million dollars and acquired an 18% stake in Cloudera.”
Mike Olson Dec 18, 2014 ▶ 19:36 Mike Olson, Cloudera // The Cloudera Story (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)
Assertion Supported
IBM began offering open-source alternatives within 2.5 years of Cloudera's founding
“At two and a half years, IBM was looking at what we were doing and offering their own open source alternatives, so.”
Mike Olson Dec 18, 2014 ▶ 26:48 Mike Olson, Cloudera // The Cloudera Story (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)
Disclosure
Cloudera refuses to acquire companies or products that compete with open source
“So in general, we won't acquire stuff that competes with existing open source, because that would be crazy, right?”
Mike Olson Dec 18, 2014 ▶ 32:15 Mike Olson, Cloudera // The Cloudera Story (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)
Disclosure
Sleepycat Software operated for eight years without venture capital before Oracle acquisition
“Sleepy Cat was the company that commercialized Berkeley DB in 98, and we ran that company entirely independent, no venture capital the old-fashioned way. We would make money and then we would spend it for eight years. We sold the company to Oracle in 2006”
Mike Olson Dec 18, 2014 ▶ 2:48 Mike Olson, Cloudera // The Cloudera Story (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)
Assertion Partly supported
Annual spend on relational database tools is double the underlying platform spend
“Seventy billion annually is spent on services and applications and tools on top, right? So more than twice as big as the platform play is The tools play.”
Mike Olson Dec 18, 2014 ▶ 29:23 Mike Olson, Cloudera // The Cloudera Story (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)
Assertion Supported
Hortonworks' IPO matched its prior private valuation after a 60 percent spike
“Horton's IPO was exceptionally run, right? I mean, you know, A nice sixty-plus percent spike in the stock up to mid-twenties. It re-achieved the valuation that it had hit in private investment prior.”
Mike Olson Dec 18, 2014 ▶ 33:48 Mike Olson, Cloudera // The Cloudera Story (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Splunk and Tableau were the only public big data stocks before Hortonworks
“Prior to Hortonworks IPO, you could go buy some Splunk, or you could buy Tableau, and there was really nothing else that was big data.”
Mike Olson Dec 18, 2014 ▶ 34:10 Mike Olson, Cloudera // The Cloudera Story (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)

The other half of the tape: Mike Olson's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 3 times in 2 episodes on the MAD Podcast. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Shant Hovsepian 2Matt Turck 1

Every mention by year

tap a year for its mentions
0021322015episodesmentions
0122015episodes it came up in
000.811.522015episodesmentions per episode
2015 3 mentions in 2 episodes 2 per episode

Appearances (1)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
Mike Olson, Cloudera // The Cloudera Story (Hosted by FirstMark Capital) Dec 18, 2014 26m
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