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The Calls

⏳ Open 📼 The record

Every prediction date that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.

2held up → 0didn’t hold up → 0partly held up →
100%of resolved predictions held up
Everyone Dylan Patel (6)Ryan Greenblatt (2)Nathan Benaich (2)Matthew Prince (2)Emi Gal (2)Christopher Nguyen (2)Azeem Azhar (2)Aaron Levie (2)Sholto Douglas (1)Sharon Zhou (1)Prakash Nanduri (1)Mike Murchison (1)
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The record (2) every resolved claim →

Prediction Held up
Patel: All major non-Nvidia AI chips will fully support vLLM by mid-2026
“All of them will have a very good UX for download model, run model on VLM by The middle of the year, I think, right? Certainly AMD is already there by the end of this quarter.”
Dylan Patel Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 15:52 Dylan Patel: NVIDIA's New Moat & Why China is "Semiconductor Pilled”
Prediction Held up
Patel: OpenAI's next model will outperform Opus 4.5 around February-March
“OpenAI's new model, I think, will be better than Opus 4.5, and it's coming, like, somewhat soon in March-ish timeframe, maybe February, March-ish, but”
Dylan Patel Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 1:11:17 Dylan Patel: NVIDIA's New Moat & Why China is "Semiconductor Pilled”
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