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Mar 8, 2022 · 24m · mad

Fireside Chat - Azeem Azhar (Author, The Exponential Age) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)

Azeem Azhar · 19m spoken Matt Turck · 3m spoken
0:00 / 0:00
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In this episode of Data Driven NYC, Matt Turck interviews Azeem Azhar, author of 'The Exponential Age,' to discuss how compounding technological growth is transforming market dynamics, governance, localized manufacturing, and global geopolitics. Azhar provides key frameworks for understanding the widening gap between fast-moving tech platforms and linear societal institutions.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Matt holds 14.7% of the talking time here. How this is scored →

Matt as informed peer 3.1 Guest teaching 3.1 Guest disagreement 0.1 Matt pushing back 0.4
05100:0010:0020:000:36–3:43 · Matt as informed peer 2/10 Defining the Exponential Age and Core Tech Platforms Matt Turck opens with praise for the book and asks a broad introductory question about what defines the exponential age. Azeem Azhar lays out his foundational framework contrasting 20th-century tech platforms with modern compounding platforms like AI, biotech, clean energy, and manufacturing.3:43–7:49 · Matt as informed peer 3/10 Human Evolutionary Limitations in Understanding Exponential Growth Matt references the book's premise that humans struggle to perceive exponential growth and mentions the exponential gap. Azeem explains the evolutionary biology behind linear thinking using an intuitive example of estimating a charging lion's speed.7:49–12:03 · Matt as informed peer 6/10 Rise of Unlimited Superstar Companies and Data Network Effects Matt prompts a discussion on superstar companies. Azeem explicitly credits Matt's own influential blog post from years prior regarding data network effects as a core driver of modern winner-take-most monopolies.12:03–16:15 · Matt as informed peer 4/10 Antitrust Law Inadequacies in the Exponential Era Matt guides the discussion from antitrust into AI labor market impacts. When Azeem playfully teases that automation might take host jobs, Matt humorously pushes back to defend venture capitalists as non-automatable empathy workers.16:15–19:11 · Matt as informed peer 4/10 Re-Localization Trends Powered by Exponential Tech Matt introduces the re-localization concept by contrasting it with the established 'world is flat' globalization thesis. Azeem elaborates on how distributed solar, lab-grown food, and urban farming reduce reliance on global supply chains.19:11–23:44 · Matt as informed peer 2/10 Geopolitics and the New World Disorder Matt asks about geopolitics and the 'new world disorder'. Azeem details cheap cyber capabilities, disinformation tactics, and illustrates technological compounding using Deutsche Telekom data volume metrics.23:44–24:57 · Matt as informed peer 1/10 Concluding Remarks and Where to Follow Azeem Azhar Matt wraps up the interview and asks where listeners can follow Azeem's work. Azeem shares his social handles, jokes about search engine dominance, and compliments Matt's writing.0:36–3:43 · Guest teaching 3/10 Defining the Exponential Age and Core Tech Platforms Matt Turck opens with praise for the book and asks a broad introductory question about what defines the exponential age. Azeem Azhar lays out his foundational framework contrasting 20th-century tech platforms with modern compounding platforms like AI, biotech, clean energy, and manufacturing.3:43–7:49 · Guest teaching 3/10 Human Evolutionary Limitations in Understanding Exponential Growth Matt references the book's premise that humans struggle to perceive exponential growth and mentions the exponential gap. Azeem explains the evolutionary biology behind linear thinking using an intuitive example of estimating a charging lion's speed.7:49–12:03 · Guest teaching 4/10 Rise of Unlimited Superstar Companies and Data Network Effects Matt prompts a discussion on superstar companies. Azeem explicitly credits Matt's own influential blog post from years prior regarding data network effects as a core driver of modern winner-take-most monopolies.12:03–16:15 · Guest teaching 4/10 Antitrust Law Inadequacies in the Exponential Era Matt guides the discussion from antitrust into AI labor market impacts. When Azeem playfully teases that automation might take host jobs, Matt humorously pushes back to defend venture capitalists as non-automatable empathy workers.16:15–19:11 · Guest teaching 3/10 Re-Localization Trends Powered by Exponential Tech Matt introduces the re-localization concept by contrasting it with the established 'world is flat' globalization thesis. Azeem elaborates on how distributed solar, lab-grown food, and urban farming reduce reliance on global supply chains.19:11–23:44 · Guest teaching 4/10 Geopolitics and the New World Disorder Matt asks about geopolitics and the 'new world disorder'. Azeem details cheap cyber capabilities, disinformation tactics, and illustrates technological compounding using Deutsche Telekom data volume metrics.23:44–24:57 · Guest teaching 1/10 Concluding Remarks and Where to Follow Azeem Azhar Matt wraps up the interview and asks where listeners can follow Azeem's work. Azeem shares his social handles, jokes about search engine dominance, and compliments Matt's writing.0:36–3:43 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Defining the Exponential Age and Core Tech Platforms Matt Turck opens with praise for the book and asks a broad introductory question about what defines the exponential age. Azeem Azhar lays out his foundational framework contrasting 20th-century tech platforms with modern compounding platforms like AI, biotech, clean energy, and manufacturing.3:43–7:49 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Human Evolutionary Limitations in Understanding Exponential Growth Matt references the book's premise that humans struggle to perceive exponential growth and mentions the exponential gap. Azeem explains the evolutionary biology behind linear thinking using an intuitive example of estimating a charging lion's speed.7:49–12:03 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Rise of Unlimited Superstar Companies and Data Network Effects Matt prompts a discussion on superstar companies. Azeem explicitly credits Matt's own influential blog post from years prior regarding data network effects as a core driver of modern winner-take-most monopolies.12:03–16:15 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Antitrust Law Inadequacies in the Exponential Era Matt guides the discussion from antitrust into AI labor market impacts. When Azeem playfully teases that automation might take host jobs, Matt humorously pushes back to defend venture capitalists as non-automatable empathy workers.16:15–19:11 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Re-Localization Trends Powered by Exponential Tech Matt introduces the re-localization concept by contrasting it with the established 'world is flat' globalization thesis. Azeem elaborates on how distributed solar, lab-grown food, and urban farming reduce reliance on global supply chains.19:11–23:44 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Geopolitics and the New World Disorder Matt asks about geopolitics and the 'new world disorder'. Azeem details cheap cyber capabilities, disinformation tactics, and illustrates technological compounding using Deutsche Telekom data volume metrics.23:44–24:57 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Concluding Remarks and Where to Follow Azeem Azhar Matt wraps up the interview and asks where listeners can follow Azeem's work. Azeem shares his social handles, jokes about search engine dominance, and compliments Matt's writing.0:36–3:43 · Matt pushing back 0/10 Defining the Exponential Age and Core Tech Platforms Matt Turck opens with praise for the book and asks a broad introductory question about what defines the exponential age. Azeem Azhar lays out his foundational framework contrasting 20th-century tech platforms with modern compounding platforms like AI, biotech, clean energy, and manufacturing.3:43–7:49 · Matt pushing back 0/10 Human Evolutionary Limitations in Understanding Exponential Growth Matt references the book's premise that humans struggle to perceive exponential growth and mentions the exponential gap. Azeem explains the evolutionary biology behind linear thinking using an intuitive example of estimating a charging lion's speed.7:49–12:03 · Matt pushing back 0/10 Rise of Unlimited Superstar Companies and Data Network Effects Matt prompts a discussion on superstar companies. Azeem explicitly credits Matt's own influential blog post from years prior regarding data network effects as a core driver of modern winner-take-most monopolies.12:03–16:15 · Matt pushing back 2/10 Antitrust Law Inadequacies in the Exponential Era Matt guides the discussion from antitrust into AI labor market impacts. When Azeem playfully teases that automation might take host jobs, Matt humorously pushes back to defend venture capitalists as non-automatable empathy workers.16:15–19:11 · Matt pushing back 1/10 Re-Localization Trends Powered by Exponential Tech Matt introduces the re-localization concept by contrasting it with the established 'world is flat' globalization thesis. Azeem elaborates on how distributed solar, lab-grown food, and urban farming reduce reliance on global supply chains.19:11–23:44 · Matt pushing back 0/10 Geopolitics and the New World Disorder Matt asks about geopolitics and the 'new world disorder'. Azeem details cheap cyber capabilities, disinformation tactics, and illustrates technological compounding using Deutsche Telekom data volume metrics.23:44–24:57 · Matt pushing back 0/10 Concluding Remarks and Where to Follow Azeem Azhar Matt wraps up the interview and asks where listeners can follow Azeem's work. Azeem shares his social handles, jokes about search engine dominance, and compliments Matt's writing.

speaking balance: gold is Matt, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · Matt 22.5% · guest 77.5%0:00 · Matt 22.5% · guest 77.5%3:00 · Matt 14.6% · guest 85.4%3:00 · Matt 14.6% · guest 85.4%6:00 · Matt 13.1% · guest 86.9%6:00 · Matt 13.1% · guest 86.9%9:00 · Matt 0% · guest 100%9:00 · Matt 0% · guest 100%12:00 · Matt 23.9% · guest 76.1%12:00 · Matt 23.9% · guest 76.1%15:00 · Matt 13.4% · guest 86.6%15:00 · Matt 13.4% · guest 86.6%18:00 · Matt 7.5% · guest 92.5%18:00 · Matt 7.5% · guest 92.5%21:00 · Matt 13.5% · guest 86.5%21:00 · Matt 13.5% · guest 86.5%24:00 · Matt 49.1% · guest 50.9%24:00 · Matt 49.1% · guest 50.9%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 13:55 Reframing the Robot Job Apocalypse

Azeem offers his most contrarian take by dismantling common analyst narratives about a robotic job apocalypse, arguing job losses stem from lagging un-automated companies failing rather than robots directly replacing workers.

 Hardest push from Matt ▶ 14:48 Defending Venture Capitalists from Automation

Matt playfully interrupts and rejects Azeem's joke that VCs could be automated, insisting VC work is rooted in founder empathy and value creation.

 Biggest teaching moment ▶ 4:00 Evolutionary Math vs Exponential Thinking

Azeem educates the host on why natural selection favored linear distance estimation for survival against predators like lions, leaving human brains ill-equipped for exponential compounding.

 Matt holds his own ▶ 8:50 Data Network Effects Expertise Acknowledged

Azeem highlights Matt's domain expertise by revealing that Matt authored a foundational blog post defining data network effects years before the trend became widely recognized.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicMatt as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementMatt pushing backWhy
Defining the Exponential Age and Core Tech Platforms 2300 Matt Turck opens with praise for the book and asks a broad introductory question about what defines the exponential age. Azeem Azhar lays out his foundational framework contrasting 20th-century tech platforms with modern compounding platforms like AI, biotech, clean energy, and manufacturing.
Human Evolutionary Limitations in Understanding Exponential Growth 3300 Matt references the book's premise that humans struggle to perceive exponential growth and mentions the exponential gap. Azeem explains the evolutionary biology behind linear thinking using an intuitive example of estimating a charging lion's speed.
Rise of Unlimited Superstar Companies and Data Network Effects 6400 Matt prompts a discussion on superstar companies. Azeem explicitly credits Matt's own influential blog post from years prior regarding data network effects as a core driver of modern winner-take-most monopolies.
Antitrust Law Inadequacies in the Exponential Era 4412 Matt guides the discussion from antitrust into AI labor market impacts. When Azeem playfully teases that automation might take host jobs, Matt humorously pushes back to defend venture capitalists as non-automatable empathy workers.
Re-Localization Trends Powered by Exponential Tech 4301 Matt introduces the re-localization concept by contrasting it with the established 'world is flat' globalization thesis. Azeem elaborates on how distributed solar, lab-grown food, and urban farming reduce reliance on global supply chains.
Geopolitics and the New World Disorder 2400 Matt asks about geopolitics and the 'new world disorder'. Azeem details cheap cyber capabilities, disinformation tactics, and illustrates technological compounding using Deutsche Telekom data volume metrics.
Concluding Remarks and Where to Follow Azeem Azhar 1100 Matt wraps up the interview and asks where listeners can follow Azeem's work. Azeem shares his social handles, jokes about search engine dominance, and compliments Matt's writing.

Statements from this episode (12)

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Azhar: Four new tech platforms will supplant 20th-century technology foundations
“And the contention that I have today is that we are at a point and just past a cusp where there are new general purpose technology platforms that are going to supplant the ones that define the 20th century. And those are the broad technology platforms of compu…”
Azeem Azhar Mar 8, 2022 ▶ 2:03
Assertion Supported
Azhar: Exponential technology platforms improve 10% to 50% annually on price-performance
“And by improving, I mean, on a price performance basis, they get better by 10, 20, 40, 50% per annum compounding.”
Azeem Azhar Mar 8, 2022 ▶ 3:01
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Azhar: COVID-19 was most people's first exposure to non-tech exponential growth
“COVID and its moments of exponential growth at the different waves was the first time that many people would have seen this outside of technology, and there aren't processes like that that we see.”
Azeem Azhar Mar 8, 2022 ▶ 4:13
Insight
Azhar: Human evolution selected against the ability to comprehend exponential growth
“There are lots of reasons why, from an evolutionary perspective, exponential understanding would have been selected out.”
Azeem Azhar Mar 8, 2022 ▶ 5:12
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Azhar: Tech pace has outpaced institutional adaptation over past 10-15 years
“It's really just been in the last 10 or 15 years where that pace, the difference in that pace, has been so rapid that the gap becomes more and more present.”
Azeem Azhar Mar 8, 2022 ▶ 6:56
Insight
Azhar: Exponential technologies bypass society's institutional shock absorbers
“And what we've seen, particularly in our politics, but also in the increasing strength of certain companies and industry sectors, these technologies tend to end run the shock absorbers of life.”
Azeem Azhar Mar 8, 2022 ▶ 7:37
Opinion
Azhar: Meta is the weakest of the major big tech companies
“And what's true for Facebook, which is the weakest of the big tech companies is As true for Apple and Google and everyone else.”
Azeem Azhar Mar 8, 2022 ▶ 11:57
Insight
Azhar: US antitrust law fails by focusing solely on consumer prices
“And that is where the antitrust law has fallen afoul, certainly in the U S because it was focused fundamentally on cost to consumer, but we know that there are costs that are embedded elsewhere in the system.”
Azeem Azhar Mar 8, 2022 ▶ 12:32
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Azhar: Companies ignoring AI and automation shed jobs, while adopters grow
“That the data seems to show is that companies who invest in robotics, automation, AI grow. But it's companies that don't that shed the job.”
Azeem Azhar Mar 8, 2022 ▶ 14:24
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Azhar: AI and robotics will make cities food self-sustaining
“High intensity urban farming, which is fundamentally a game of data, genomics robotics and AI will for the first time since we actually had cities in from 9000 BC, allow cities to be self-sustaining in their food”
Azeem Azhar Mar 8, 2022 ▶ 17:31
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Azhar: Nations will increasingly combine cyber warfare, disinformation, and physical force
“So people are worrying about other things, and then you let your tanks roll in and that recipe is, is increasingly going to be tried, tried and tested.”
Azeem Azhar Mar 8, 2022 ▶ 20:45
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2042
Azhar: Mobile data growth should reach 90,000-fold over the next 20 years
“Over the next 20 years, which is two lots of 10 years, we should, if it was, if it grew at the rate it grew over the last decade, it would grow 90,000 times, 300 squared. So if you think it's going to be less than a 90,000 fold growth, you have to have quite a…”
Azeem Azhar Mar 8, 2022 ▶ 22:44
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