Benedict Evans

26 statements across 3 episodes · 1 bullish · 9 bearish · 1 people on the record · first statement Apr 10, 2024 by Benedict Evans · said 1 times in 1 episodes since 2025 · across every show →

On the record as a speaker too: Benedict Evans's record, appearances and statements → this page counts the times other people say the name.

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Everything said about Benedict Evans, oldest first

Apr 10, 2024 negative
Disclosure
Evans: Intense tech subcultures drove his departure from Silicon Valley
“One of the reasons I left Silicon Valley is I couldn't deal with this kind of thing.”
Benedict Evans Apr 10, 2024 ▶ 34:03 Is AI a platform shift or a paradigm shift? With Benedict Evans
Apr 10, 2024 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Evans: 2023's immediate generative AI use cases were coding and brainstorming
“But we're still, and we had, I think in 20, 23, that wave of the initial, oh my God, you can use it for that right now things, which is basically coding and brainstorming.”
Benedict Evans Apr 10, 2024 ▶ 4:18 Is AI a platform shift or a paradigm shift? With Benedict Evans
Apr 10, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Evans: VR headsets will not replace smartphones as primary computing platforms
“You're not going to wear a headset, no matter how light and cheap it is, all day outdoors. I would not have worn it walking here, even if it weighed a hundred grams and had completely perfect pass-through. Therefore, it can't replace your phone. Therefore, we …”
Benedict Evans Apr 10, 2024 ▶ 49:04 Is AI a platform shift or a paradigm shift? With Benedict Evans
Apr 10, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: Predictions that only tech giants had enough AI data were wrong
“And this is clearly what happened with the last wave of machine learning. There was a brief moment where people said it needs all this data. Only Google's got all the data. There's going to be, like, three people who've got enough data to do AI, and that turne…”
Benedict Evans Apr 10, 2024 ▶ 14:31 Is AI a platform shift or a paradigm shift? With Benedict Evans
Apr 10, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Evans: Fully autonomous end-to-end AI workflows require AGI
“But you kind of know at the same time that in practice, what I've just described would kind of require AGI. In practice, there's like 10 ways that that's going to break And never mind the hallucination problem, which is a whole separate conversation. There's j…”
Benedict Evans Apr 10, 2024 ▶ 13:03 Is AI a platform shift or a paradigm shift? With Benedict Evans
Apr 10, 2024 neutral
Insight
Evans: Framing machine learning as pattern recognition unlocked enterprise adoption
“And it took a while to work out that the right level of abstraction was to think that this is pattern recognition.”
Benedict Evans Apr 10, 2024 ▶ 2:04 Is AI a platform shift or a paradigm shift? With Benedict Evans
Apr 10, 2024 negative
Insight
Evans: Major software failures stem from institutional rot, not missing regulation
“You don't look at this and say, well obviously the solution is that we needed to have a database regulator that makes sure that databases don't have bugs. Rather you look at it and say, well, this is an institutional failure. A in Fujitsu in the post office an…”
Benedict Evans Apr 10, 2024 ▶ 43:39 Is AI a platform shift or a paradigm shift? With Benedict Evans
Apr 10, 2024 negative
Disclosure
Benedict Evans still hasn't found a daily use case for ChatGPT
“In my actual job, I can't work out something that I would actually use ChatGPT for.”
Benedict Evans Apr 10, 2024 ▶ 22:38 Is AI a platform shift or a paradigm shift? With Benedict Evans
May 22, 2025 neutral
Insight
Evans: Memory features in AI models create user stickiness, not network effects
“I think that stickiness, I don't think it's a network effect.”
Benedict Evans May 22, 2025 ▶ 53:08 AI Eats the World: Benedict Evans on What Really Matters Now
May 22, 2025 negative
Insight
Evans: Legal AI adoption is slowed by plausibility versus accuracy
“There's a huge difference between a legal brief that looks right and a legal brief that is right.”
Benedict Evans May 22, 2025 ▶ 28:57 AI Eats the World: Benedict Evans on What Really Matters Now
May 22, 2025 negative
Insight
Evans: You cannot trust AI research reports on unfamiliar topics
“But if you go to it and say, give me a 40 page report on something I don't know much about, you can't trust any line of that report, because most of it will be right, probably, or it will be roughly right, but if there's anything, but you won't be able to depe…”
Benedict Evans May 22, 2025 ▶ 11:32 AI Eats the World: Benedict Evans on What Really Matters Now
May 22, 2025 bullish
Insight
Evans: GPTs could lower software creation costs by an order of magnitude
“The analogy that's been floating around, I think, is, is to compare this with AWS, in the sense that AWS was a sort of an order of magnitude change in how easy you could get a startup out of the door. You didn't need to write all this stuff yourself and buy in…”
Benedict Evans May 22, 2025 ▶ 29:10 AI Eats the World: Benedict Evans on What Really Matters Now
May 22, 2025
Insight
Evans: Building AI models is getting costlier while usage costs fall
“Building a model gets more expensive, but the cost of using the model gets cheaper.”
Benedict Evans May 22, 2025 ▶ 3:56 AI Eats the World: Benedict Evans on What Really Matters Now
May 22, 2025
Insight
Evans: Users are forcing non-deterministic AI into deterministic roles
“We're still at that beginning of, like, forcing it to do deterministic, forcing it to be a deterministic system, which of course it isn't.”
Benedict Evans May 22, 2025 ▶ 16:53 AI Eats the World: Benedict Evans on What Really Matters Now
May 22, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Evans: AI frontier models are commodities spread across half a dozen organizations
“The thing that's become very clear, if it wasn't clear a year ago, is that the models themselves are sort of commodities in that, you know, there's half a dozen people who have a state-of-the-art model.”
Benedict Evans May 22, 2025 ▶ 2:28 AI Eats the World: Benedict Evans on What Really Matters Now
Mar 19, 2026
Insight
Evans: The hardest part of building software isn't writing the code
“The hard part of writing software is not writing code. It's all the other stuff around, like, what should the code be doing? And how would we tell people that they should be using it? And what should we charge? And how do we go to market? And which bit of the …”
Benedict Evans Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 57:58 Benedict Evans: OpenAI’s Moat Problem & the Future of Software
Mar 19, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: Submitting 1,000 prompts placed ChatGPT users in top 20%
“Turns out that if you did a thousand posts, if you did a thousand prompts last year, you're in the top 20%.”
Benedict Evans Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 12:00 Benedict Evans: OpenAI’s Moat Problem & the Future of Software
Mar 19, 2026 negative
Insight
Evans: Incremental AI accuracy improvements don't reduce necessary human review
“But if you've got a bunch of use cases where you need the right answer, as opposed to sort of the right answer, then saying that the model is better doesn't mean anything. I mean, literally, it is literally meaningless. What you're telling me is, I asked the m…”
Benedict Evans Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 10:17 Benedict Evans: OpenAI’s Moat Problem & the Future of Software
Mar 19, 2026
Assertion Contradicted
Evans: Corporate audit costs stayed flat since early 2000s despite software progress
“Average audit data, all sorts of data for audit costs since the Barnes Oakley, which has basically been flat since about since the early 2000, despite everything that's happened in software”
Benedict Evans Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 50:46 Benedict Evans: OpenAI’s Moat Problem & the Future of Software
Mar 19, 2026
Insight
Evans: Most SaaS companies are fundamentally just database wrappers
“Most SaaS companies are database wrappers, where somebody realized that here is this problem, and here is the people who have it, and here is a way of turning it 90 degrees, and this is your insertion point, this is how you build it and take it to market.”
Benedict Evans Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 57:33 Benedict Evans: OpenAI’s Moat Problem & the Future of Software
Mar 19, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Evans: Anthropic momentum is fleeting as AI model leadership shifts weekly
“Not really. I mean, this week they've got all the fire, they've got all the juice, whatever the word is. I don't know. This week, next week, it'll be something else.”
Benedict Evans Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 24:30 Benedict Evans: OpenAI’s Moat Problem & the Future of Software
Mar 19, 2026
Insight
Evans: Almost everyone in a tech bubble acts rationally
“Well, you know, everyone in, in, generally in a bubble, everybody's a rational actor. Almost everyone's a rational actor given their situation.”
Benedict Evans Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 39:07 Benedict Evans: OpenAI’s Moat Problem & the Future of Software
Mar 19, 2026 negative
Opinion
Evans: Precise numeric scores for job AI exposure are ludicrous
“You want to take all the numbers off because it could tell yourself that that one is 96.5 and that one is 78. It's just ludicrous.”
Benedict Evans Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 34:24 Benedict Evans: OpenAI’s Moat Problem & the Future of Software
Mar 19, 2026 neutral
Insight
Evans: AI product teams are strategy takers, not strategy setters
“You start from the technology. You don't control the product strategy, which is of course how science works, but you don't know what's going to happen. You don't know what's going to get built. You know, obviously you've got like Sam and Dario and so on are li…”
Benedict Evans Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 14:46 Benedict Evans: OpenAI’s Moat Problem & the Future of Software
Mar 19, 2026 neutral
Insight
Evans: Differentiating a chatbot is like differentiating a web browser
“The chatbot itself is kind of like trying to differentiate a web browser in that you've got an input box and an output box, and how can you make them different if the whole point is that you can type in anything and get anything out.”
Benedict Evans Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 12:50 Benedict Evans: OpenAI’s Moat Problem & the Future of Software
Mar 19, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Evans: No one will vibe code their own ERP software
“No, no one will vibe code their own ERP or their own frame.io, but they may ask Anthropic or Gemini or ChatGPT, can you do this thing for me?”
Benedict Evans Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 29:10 Benedict Evans: OpenAI’s Moat Problem & the Future of Software
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