The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 29 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 29 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Chen: AI Efficiency Will Enable $100 Billion Revenue-Per-Employee Ratios
“And I think we're going to see companies with even crazier ratios, like a hundred billion per employee in the next few years. AI is just going to get better and better and make things more efficient. So that ratio just becomes inevitable.”
Wu: There will be far more software engineers in a few years
“And so if anything, I think there's going to be, I think there's going to be way more product, way more programmers and way more engineers, you know, a few years from now than there are today.”
Truell: Long-term demand for software engineers will increase despite AI
“I think long into the future, yes, there will actually be more demand for engineers.”
Masad: By 2029, a zero-employee company will hit a billion-dollar valuation
“But I could imagine like whatever, five years from now someone running, you know, a billion dollar company with zero employees, where it's like the support is handled by AI. The development is handled by AI.”
Shipper: Near-term enterprise AI will center around company super agents
“I really think that the model for now is going to be a super agent, like one agent for the entire company.”
Kalinowski: Hardware memory prices will likely double due to supply shocks
“I think prices are gonna double, probably. I don't know on what timeline. If I knew what timeline the prices were gonna double on, I'd be trading, which I'm not very good at. Like, I'd really be, I'd do, be doing a different job if I could predict these things…”
Vo: AI agents will become the top users of websites within years
“I think we skip ahead a couple of years and the number one user of websites are going to be people's agents.”
Younis: Autonomy will be standard and near-free within seven years
“It will not be a long time. You're already seeing this happen in China where the downward pricing pressure for that autonomous product for the lack of better word will become close to free. So now you fast forward five to seven years and every car Has some lev…”
Wu: A one-person billion-dollar startup will likely exist eventually
“It's like, yeah, if, you know, if people are so high leverage, at some point there will likely be a one person billion dollar startup.”
Andreessen: Many countries including China will depopulate over the next century
“Many, many countries around the world, by the way, including China, Which is a really big deal. Are actually going to depopulate over the next century.”
Andreessen: Shrinking populations will put human workers at a premium over 10–30 years
“Human workers in many, many, many countries over the next, you know, 10, 2030 years are going to be at more and more of a premium literally because you're going to have shrinking population levels.”
Ubiquitous code generation will increase demand for human software engineering skills
“And as you make code even more ubiquitous, it's actually just going to be used for many more purposes. And so there's just going to be a ton more need for people with this, like humans with this competency.”
Sharma: Industry spending on AI post-training will eventually surpass pre-training
“Like, I believe we will see, you know, just as much money spent on post-training as we will on pre-training, and in the future, more on post-training.”
Demand for human Uber drivers will continue to increase despite autonomous vehicles
“The need for human drivers on our platform or human earners, I would say, is just going to continue to increase because we're going to have multiple earning opportunities for them over time.”
Misra: Indistinguishable photorealistic AI video is a couple of years away
“I do think to fully get there to the point where it cannot be differentiated at all, it's still a couple of years away.”
AI will not cause net headcount drops in PM or data science
“I also think one of the flip sides of we say we need fewer, it's like fewer of for the same output. Doesn't necessarily mean fewer of in macro, because if you are using these systems right, you can just grow more quickly. You can build more things. You can tak…”
Shipper: Coding models won't independently rewrite broken codebases within a year
“I'm pretty sure this, here's a prediction. I'm pretty sure every coding model on the market will still do this in a year. Every coding model on the market will take that instruction seriously. And if I tell it, here's a bunch of issues, go fix it. They will ju…”
Rachitsky: Data labeling firms pay heavily for pre-AI GitHub repos
“Data labeling companies are buying old GitHub repos of handwritten code. To train their models on. And they're paying a lot of money for like artisanal human written code.”
AI will replace human translators and most journalists
“AI is going to replace translators. It's going to replace most journalists because it does good research. It can write good copy, whatever, not, not elite journalism. It's not going to be able to replace all the writers.”
Cohen: 70% of job skill requirements will change by 2030
“When we look at, like, the skills required to do your job, By 2030, which is literally four years from now, sounds a long time, but 40 years, four years from now, it will change by 70%.”
Zlokazov: Revolut will soon reach 100 million customers
“Now we are fifty million customers. Soon we'll be at a hundred million customers.”
Shopify founders deleted incomplete code after one hour of pair programming
“You know, Toby famously built a lot of Shopify pair programming, and what he would do is he would actually set a timer And him and his, the CTO, Cody, would pair program for one hour, and if they did not finish the problem in one hour, they would delete all th…”
Hardiman: NYT will reach 15 million subscribers by 2027
“We want to get to fifteen million subscribers by 20, 27, right? Just over nine million today. And I really think we can do it.”
Shipper: Workplace AI agent interactions will happen mostly in Slack
“I think there's this little thing in people's heads where they really like to keep their personal and work agents separate. And I think there's a whole territory. Our COO Brandon Gell calls this computer errands. There's like this whole territory of using pers…”
Future LLMs will automatically expand short user prompts into detailed descriptions
“This will happen with text models. You can imagine a world where you go into ChatGPT and you say, write me a blog post about AI. It automatically will go and be like, let me generate a much higher fidelity description of what this person really wants, which is…”
Evans predicts Amazon will ultimately adopt his truck-based drone delivery patent
“You know, I'm waiting for the, my idea to become part of Amazon's drone delivery system, but I think ultimately it will.”
Rachitsky: Notion team retrospectively concluded they should have hired PMs earlier
“In my Notion deep dive on how Notion builds product, one of the interview answers was just like, we should have hired product managers earlier.”
Aluwi: Gojek paid early drivers via physical cash booths with vaults
“In the early days, we actually had cash booths. So we actually had physical spaces with like a vault and a cash sitting in the vault where drivers can show up, you know, show that, oh, I'm, this is my driver ID. And this is the balance that I have with you, pl…”