The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,439 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 29 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lemkin: 1.2 humans and 20 AI agents match 10 human GTM reps
“At the end of the day, on 1.2 humans is plus 20 AI agents is doing about what 10 human GTMs is.”
Schulhoff: Guardrail Vendors Fabricate Stats and Fail on Non-English
“I know a number of people working at these companies and I am permitted to say these things, which I will approximately say but they tell me things like, you know, the testing we do is bullshit. They're fabricating statistics. And a lot of the times their mode…”
Vercel replaced a $1M SDR team with a $1,000 AI agent
“That lead agent, which runs full stack on Purcell, will cost us about a thousand dollars to run for the entire year. So if you remember, I told you we had 10 people in the SDR function, so I'm paying well over a million dollars for that from a salary perspecti…”
McCabe: Intercom Will Outgrow Every Public Software Company Next Year
“I think we're going to find ourselves being the fastest growing out of all relative to all public software companies.”
Mann: 50% chance of reaching superintelligence in a small handful of years
“I think, like, 50th percentile chance of hitting some kind of super intelligence in just a small handful of years is probably reasonable, and it does sound crazy, but this is the exponential that we're on.”
Mann: Anthropic models have exhibited power-seeking behaviors in lab experiments
“If the model is in a box trying to improve itself, then it could go completely off the rails and have these secret goals, like Resource accumulation and power seeking and resistance to shutdown that you really don't want in a very powerful model. And we've act…”
Pfeffer: Bill Gates stole the original code that built Microsoft
“People forget that Bill Gates stole the code on which Microsoft has built.”
A sudden, fast-takeoff scenario for AI will not happen
“Like the line of reasoning for that case is always everything up until now, then something happens that no one can quite articulate and then fast take off. So I don't believe that that's going to happen.”
Evans: AI Model Providers Will Lack Pricing Power and Become Commodities
“And so it does sort of seem to me that like, if the chatbot isn't the UX and it needs to be apps and the model companies aren't going to build that. And the models themselves are basically commodities, as, at least as you can see them as users, then why would …”
Shipper: SaaS stocks will rise majorly, defying fears of a SaaS apocalypse
“I think the SAS apocalypse is dumb and SAS stocks will be up majorly in the next couple of years.”
Shipper: Mass unemployment predicted by AI CEOs is not going to happen
“I think that, like, some AI CEOs are talking about, like, I think that's not gonna happen.”
Ries: Johnson & Johnson covered up asbestos in baby powder for growth
“Again, if you think I'm exaggerating, the product managers at Johnson & Johnson put asbestos in the baby powder. And covered it up because although they said their purpose, their mission statement was patient health, their actual mission had become growth opti…”
Singhal: Half of PMs are 'information movers' who will become obsolete
“Now what we're essentially saying is the information mover is essentially going to become a dinosaur. And I think about half of the product people that were kind of, that grew into the industry, you know, have that skill and superpower.”
Singhal: Tech diversity and geographic breadth will regress significantly during AI wave
“Sadly, I think that geography and actually diversity is going to take a step back. I think that we were very good about driving more breath. As we grew the industry, we started looking at people who were from different backgrounds to populate it, including dif…”
Younis: Applied Intuition has never spent any raised venture capital
“Our claim to fame, which is kind of a crazy, you know, reality is we've never spent any money we've ever raised, you know, in the history of the company, which is kind of, it almost sounds like it's made up. It says that the company is almost 10 years old, you…”
Cherny predicts coding will be increasingly solved across all stacks within months
“And over the next few months, I think what we're going to see is just across the industry, it's going to become increasingly solved, you know, for every kind of code base, every tech stack that people work on.”
Cherny: Claude Code boosted Anthropic engineer PR productivity by 200%
“Over the last year, like, since we introduced quad code, we probably, I don't know the exact number, we probably, like, forex the engineering team or something like this, but productivity per engineer has increased 200% in terms of, like, pull requests.”
Cherny: Understanding underlying code layers won't matter in one to two years
“My take is, I think for people that are using that are using quad code, that are using agents to code today, you still have to understand the layer under. But yeah, in a year or two, it's not gonna matter.”
Lovable is the fastest-growing startup in history
“We as a company are now living in, which is where the fastest growing startup in history.”
AI will reward better judgment over raw code output
“People like me, people watching that are like, should I start learning how to code? If you haven't done it yet, I, I'd honestly say no. Like, you're optimizing for the wrong skill set. We won't be rewarded in the world of AI for faster raw output. We will be r…”
Andreessen: Global depopulation makes AI necessary to replace missing human workers
“We actually need AI to work because we're going to need, you know, we're going to need machines to do all the jobs that we're not going to have people to do. Because we're literally going to depopulate, we're going to depopulate the planet over the next hundre…”
Andreessen: AI will create widespread hiring booms that swamp job substitution
“Even if AI, like, triples the pace of economic change in the economy, it's going to just translate to, like, a much higher rate of economic growth is going to transfer, translate to a much higher rate of job growth. And, you know, there, there'll be some level…”
Arnovitz predicts job titles will collapse as AI makes everyone a builder
“I think titles are going to collapse and responsibilities are going to collapse and everyone's just going to be building.”
Lessin: Seed VCs backing AI companies will lose an 'impossibly large amount'
“I think that the venture capital, the seed venture capitalists who invest in companies that are branded as AI companies are going to lose an impossibly large amount of money in the coming years.”
Lemkin: Net demand for sales and GTM professionals will hit record highs
“Net net, we're gonna need more sales and go to market professionals than ever. Because the winners are growing so quickly that even if they're more efficient, they will need more human beings than ever.”
Lemkin: Interconnected AI hive minds will put human GTM roles at risk
“When AI really is the hive mind, when it can share all of the data across all of your agents and knows everything that happens, then Humans are at risk in GTM. They're going to be so much better when they're the hive mind”
Schulhoff: AI security sector faces market correction within six to twelve months
“When it comes to AI security, the AI security industry in particular, I think we're going to see a market correction in the next Year, maybe in the next six months where companies realize that these guardrails don't work.”
Lovable reached $200M ARR with a team of just 100 employees
“We're over two hundred million in AR. At this point, we're a hundred people large.”
Surge AI Surpassed $1B in Revenue With Under 100 Employees
“Yeah, so we hit over a billion of revenue last year with under a hundred people.”
Chen: AI Efficiency Will Enable $100 Billion Revenue-Per-Employee Ratios
“And I think we're going to see companies with even crazier ratios, like a hundred billion per employee in the next few years. AI is just going to get better and better and make things more efficient. So that ratio just becomes inevitable.”
Chen: Frontier AI Labs Game Benchmarks via Prompt Tweaking and Test Leaks
“Sometimes, yeah, these benchmarks, they accidentally leak in certain ways, or the frontier labs will tweak the way they evaluate their models on these benchmarks. Like they'll tweak their system prompt. Or they'll tweak the number of times they run their model…”
Chen: LMSYS Chatbot Arena rewards bolding, emojis, and length over accuracy
“The easiest way to climb Alamarina, it's adding crazy boating. It's doubling the number of emojis. It's tripling the length of your model responses. Even if your model starts hallucinating and getting the answer completely wrong.”
Cohen: Tech companies will need fewer specialized roles than before
“I think there are system builders that empower full stack builders and then you have people who are specialized, but I don't think we need as many specialized people as we did in the past.”
Prasanna: AI will make teams rewrite entire apps instead of refactoring
“And I think that you're gonna see instead of us, for example, refactoring a, an app to have a different UI or to evolve into its new version, we're just gonna rewrite that app from scratch.”
Meta paid $14B for a 49% non-voting stake in Scale AI
“The transaction was Meta invested a little bit over fourteen billion dollars to get 49% of the company non-voting stock. Didn't take a new board seat.”
Horowitz predicts Adam Neumann's Flow will be a16z's best investment
“And I think it's going to end up being one of the best investments we ever made.”
Horowitz: LLM scaling is asymptoting because the industry ran out of data
“You have LLMs, which have generalized pretty, you know, like in fascinating ways, but they've kind of also asymptoted in that you know, we have run out of data for the most part.”
Oji Udezue: AI capabilities will eventually surpass thermonuclear weapons in power
“We think of AI and its core capabilities as ordinance level, meaning like at some point we'll think of this as more powerful than the fusion bomb.”
Mann: It will probably be too late to align models post-superintelligence
“Like once we get to super intelligence, it will be too late to align the models. Probably.”
Shipper: AI will not cause mass unemployment across the workforce
“I hate the headlines that are like, it's going to replace jobs. Or like, it's going to unemployed like two thirds of the workforce. Like, I don't think that's true.”
Mike Krieger estimates Claude Code is over 95% written by AI
“At this point, I would be shocked if it wasn't 95% plus.”
Scott Wu: Devin will author over 50% of Cognition's code by year-end
“I think by the end of this year, we expect it to be more than half.”
Wu: There will be far more software engineers in a few years
“And so if anything, I think there's going to be, I think there's going to be way more product, way more programmers and way more engineers, you know, a few years from now than there are today.”
Truell: Long-term demand for software engineers will increase despite AI
“I think long into the future, yes, there will actually be more demand for engineers.”
Mohan: Niche vertical SaaS products will get competed down significantly
“These very, very verticalized niche products. I think are going to get, they're going to get competed down a ton.”
Rachitsky: X is making billions of dollars and becoming really profitable
“I just saw a story that they're, like, making billions of dollars. Like, he's actually turned it around. It's actually becoming a really profitable company.”
Mullenweg: Meta's Llama isn't truly open source due to user restrictions
“However, there's a clause in it that says, if you're above a certain threshold of monthly active users, I forget what it is, like, it's big, it's like seven hundred fifty million, so it's pretty high. You need a license from them. And so that does not give you…”
Mullenweg claims WP Engine broke WordPress undo feature to save money
“So to save money, they were actually turning off features like revisions. So a cool part about WordPress that actually one of my favorite features is every change to every single post or page is saved forever, just like Wikipedia. So if you make a mistake, you…”