Ben Mann, co-founder of Anthropic, discusses the safety risks of recursive AI self-improvement during an interview with Lenny Rachitsky.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mann: 50% chance of reaching superintelligence in a small handful of years
“I think, like, 50th percentile chance of hitting some kind of super intelligence in just a small handful of years is probably reasonable, and it does sound crazy, but this is the exponential that we're on.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mann: It will probably be too late to align models post-superintelligence
“Like once we get to super intelligence, it will be too late to align the models. Probably.”
Opinion
Mann: $100M AI compensation packages are cheap compared to value created
“I'm pretty sure it's real. If you just think about like the amount of impact that individuals can have on a company's trajectory, like in our case we are selling like hotcakes and if we get You know, a five, a one to 10 or five percent efficiency bonus on our …”
Prediction Held up
Mann: Global AI capex is on track to reach trillions
“Like, if you extrapolate the exponential on how much companies are spending, it's like two, two x a year, roughly, in terms of capex, and today we're maybe in the, like, globally, three hundred billion dollar range, the entire industry spending on this and so …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mann: Reinforcement learning has allowed AI scaling laws to continue
“If you look at the scaling laws, they're continuing to hold true. We did kind of need this transition from like normal pre-training to reinforcement learning, scaling up to continue the scaling laws.”
Insight
Mann: Transformative AI should be measured by an economic Turing test
“Instead, I like the term transformative AI because it's less about like, can it do as much as people do? Can it do literally everything and more about objectively, is it causing transformation in society and the economy? And a very concrete way of measuring th…”