why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Bier: People download apps to make money, find love, or unplug
“It's like people download apps to make or save money. Examples of that might be like, you know, WhatsApp where, you know, free texting. And then the other reason is to find a mate. So maybe like Tinder or Snapchat, find love. And the third is to unplug from re…”
Opinion
Gilad: Google+ Caused Google to Miss Mobile Social Opportunities Like WhatsApp
“In hindsight, not only did Google bet on the wrong thing, it missed much easier opportunities. So just not far from Google's headquarters, there was WhatsApp. Not very famous in the US, but they actually created massive impact. Hundreds of millions of people w…”
Insight
Sharma: WhatsApp won on reliability and phone book integration, not features
“WhatsApp didn't win because it had Stickers or stories or dark mode. In fact, I don't even think it had all of those things when it won. It won on a few premises because one was the phone book. Like you knew that when you use WhatsApp, you could reach every si…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Turley: OpenAI operates ChatGPT with a remarkably lean team
“So we've always had this tendency to run relatively lean. So it is a small team that is running chat GPT. I take inspiration from WhatsApp where like, you know, it was a very small team running a very global scope product.”
Insight
Ami Vora: Shipping too many features overwhelms users and muddies products
“Until you know whether your product or feature works, you don't actually need all of that. In fact, it muddies the product because it's harder for users to understand what it's for. What I learned at WhatsApp is that it didn't actually make sense to ship every…”
Disclosure
Vora: WhatsApp anchored its core product design on face-to-face communication
“The prime metaphor we kind of arrived at for WhatsApp was face-to-face communication. You know, our goal there was to make it so that every person in the world could feel connected to the people they cared most about, even when they were Separate. Even they're…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Becker predicts WhatsApp will likely launch advertisements later in 2023
“Instagram and probably eventually WhatsApp, which I think will probably launch ads later this year.”
Insight
Winters: Social networks must evolve beyond pure direct network effects
“The thing that's really tricky in understanding social networks is they're traditionally described as these direct network effect businesses, but all of them have to become Either cross side and or data and network effect businesses over time. The only compani…”
Opinion
Winters: WhatsApp executes perceived simplicity better than any other company
“The company that I feel like has always done the best job of this is, is WhatsApp where, you know, at its core, it's a chat app and it's really good at being a chat app. But I remember when I went to Brazil, all of a sudden I started receiving like voice messa…”
Assertion Supported
Vora: WhatsApp handles 100B messages and 1B calls daily across 2B users
“Globally, it has two billion users, a hundred billion messages a day, a billion calls a day”
Assertion Supported
Vora: WhatsApp crossed 100 million users in the US last summer
“WhatsApp crossed a hundred million users in the US last summer.”
Disclosure
Vora: WhatsApp mirrored native OS UI patterns like Android's floating action button
“If Android put a floating action button down in the bottom right, that's where WhatsApp would put its button too. And we built the same patterns consistently throughout the app”
Disclosure
Vora: WhatsApp paused AI and filters to focus on reliable messaging
“So we had to spend our entire roadmap on that. We had to slow down all the other grand ideas we had. And I'll tell you, this was not always easy. We would look at other teams building the newest AI models or advanced photo filters, and we'd get a little bit je…”
Assertion Supported
Gilad: WhatsApp long measured messages sent as its primary user-value metric
“For example, let's take WhatsApp WhatsApp for very long time measured messages sent because every message sent is a little increment of value for the sender.”