why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Stein: AI expands overall search queries without hurting core Google Search
“And what we're finding is that AI is expansionary. And so there's actually just more and more questions being asked and curiosity that can be fulfilled now with AI. And so that's where you get the growth. And so all like the core Google search isn't really cha…”
Assertion Partly supported
Smith: Only 10 to 12% of Google and ChatGPT results are AI-generated
“It was around 10 to 12% of content in Google search and in ChatGPT are AI generated. 90% or not.”
Assertion Supported
Mann: ASL-3 models provide significant uplift for creating bioweapons
“We've done, we've testified to Congress about how models can do biological uplift in terms of, you know, making new pandemics using the models, and that's an A-B test against Google search. That's like the previous state-of-the-art on uplift trials, and we fou…”
Opinion
Beykpour: Perplexity is one of few consumer AI products that retains
“It's like one of the only non-development tool AI products that actually has retained. A lot of people try and consumer AI products that just aren't really, haven't retained, but perplexity is one that is a, it's a daily driver for me.”
Assertion Supported
Stein: Google AI executes query fan-out with dozens of background searches
“When our AI constructs a response it's actually trying to, it does something called query fan out. Where the model uses Google search as a tool to find, to do other querying. So maybe you're asking about specific shoes. It'll add and append all of these other …”
Opinion
Stein: Conversational AI search cannot fit within core search UI
“It's gonna be really hard to build all of that within the construct of the core search experience.”
Assertion Supported
Wise maintains a 70% Net Promoter Score, outperforming iPhone and Google
“So IPS is 70%. So it's really, really high. So it's kind of higher than the iPhone and Google, Google search.”
Insight
Paid acquisition serves only two purposes: profitable returns or rapid learning
“So there are two reasons to do paid. I mean, I'm oversimplifying, but I think people will hopefully appreciate the oversimplification. Number one, because it actually like drives, drives returns. Add efficient unit economics, whatever that may mean for your co…”