The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 237 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 34 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Anderson claims she is confident she will never develop Alzheimer's disease
“I tell people I can confidently say I will never develop Alzheimer's.”
Chadha: India will become the world's cancer capital within two years
“Mark my words, in the next two years, India is going to be the cancer capital of the world as well.”
Brown: AI will lead to more lawyers than ever before
“I think that there will be more lawyers than ever before.”
Ranjan: AI Will Stop Hallucinating Before Hallucination-Fixing Startups Can Launch
“There are companies which I looked at, which said, well, AI hallucinates. So we are going to go do this. And my thinking is, by the time you go do this, AI will stop hallucinating.”
Brown predicts as many humanoid robots as dogs and cats within a decade
“In the next decade, I believe that there's going to be as many humanoid robots as there's going to be dogs and cats on this planet.”
Yang: Quantum computing and large models will achieve indistinguishable consciousness
“I truly believe that specifically the quantum computing based processors and big, large models. Will be indistinguishably conscious.”
Venkatachalam: In 20 years all humans will need new jobs
“In 20 years, I'm actually hoping I become an AI chatbot now, meaning I think that AI will be doing things that we can't even imagine all of us will need new jobs.”
Johnson: AI Will Destroy Traditional Startup Product-Market Fit Metrics
“I think that that entire conversation will be destroyed. Every investor I've ever talked to since the time I started in investments has talked about, like, do you have the product market fit? Do you have differentiation? Like, what's, how can you gain differen…”
Kaplan: AI Will Function as an Autonomous, Alien Intelligence Within Five Years
“When I go out, you know, five plus years, I realize that this is not really a tool. What's happening is we're having a technology that's more like an intelligent entity. It's more, it's closer to an alien intelligence than it is a tool, and this alien intellig…”
Ahuja: Enterprises will soon operate people-less, AI agent-only GCCs
“And I think the time is not far when you would have, you know, bolt-ons or even GCCs that'll have no people. You can Do it in your backyard. You can do it on your computer, and you know, ah, so I think it's coming.”
Devillieres: AI will reduce white-collar jobs tenfold while doubling human output
“And so, in the grand scheme of things, I just think that AI is going to do to white collar, like repetitive intellectual work, what machines did to physical work, which is we'll go 10 weeks less number of jobs, two weeks the output, and people are going to be …”
Joseph: Software and AI engineers will be the first roles eliminated
“Now AI has made it so easy for people who has domain knowledge to build software. So the biggest Threat that software engineers and AI engineers created is for themselves. Like, you know, that they are the ones who are going away first in, and, you know, the, …”
Heiss: MyAutoData will eventually outgrow Meta
“And that's, that is the idea in the long run is to really create this big organization that will outgrow meta at one point in time.”
Jeffrey: AI-supercharged humans, not autonomous machines, will drive job displacement
“And this is gonna be true of your job, my job, everybody's job in the future is like, You take an individual and you make them 10 times faster, a hundred times faster, whatever it is, it's that person that starts to eat up the world of jobs, not like the machi…”
Chen: OpenAI and Anthropic will follow SpaceX with IPOs in 2026
“Obviously later this year we're following with some other big names and OpenAI and Anthropic.”
Brown: Traditional high-rate law firms will shrink or shutter within a decade
“I think there's no way the legal industry looks the same as it does in five and 10 years. I think that some law firms will be skeletons of what they were. I think that some law firms that do things that ultimately doesn't make sense for humans to be doing at a…”
Khan: Startups hiring ATS-rejected talent will build numerous unicorns
“This is the greatest, that is the greatest pool of brilliance sitting out there right now who cannot make it past the applicant tracking system, the ATS right now. But once we can tap into that, I mean, now you're sitting on unicorn after unicorn after unicorn…”
Port: AI will not replace all jobs due to token and engineering costs
“I think some of the nervousness around is AI going to replace all of our jobs. One of the reasons it's not is because AI is not for free and you know, the tokens that support AI, the technology, the time that is needed, the engineering time. To build the agent…”
Doronichev: Every pharma company will become AI-native within 10 years or fail
“Within the next 10 years, every pharma will become an AI native pharma. Just like every retailer turned into e-commerce or left the market within the first 10 years of the internet.”
Panigrahi predicts an incoming superbug will cause the next global pandemic.
“There's a superbug coming, right? That will be another pandemic.”
Panigrahi: AI Health Coaches Will Not Replace Humans in Healthcare
“You can't replace, take human out of the healthcare. Not gonna happen. Even if I'm building it, I'll say, always say that.”
Yang: Global frontline AI employee adoption will reach at least 300 million
“Overall we expect that on this planet Earth, we will have at least three hundred million non biological employees AI employees, AI receptionists basically almost every single business in the world which is big enough to have a website or big enough to have a b…”
Venkatachalam: The era of shallow, horizontal subscription SaaS is ending
“So, absolutely I think the era of horizontal, shallow software that's sold in some kind of monthly subscription is, is reaching its end.”
Johnson: Incumbent Companies Have 24–36 Months to Pivot to AI
“If you don't do that, the likelihood is you probably won't turn fast enough, because I really do think that we've got about 24 to 36 months before that door closes.”
Kaplan: AI will process a lifetime of human thoughts in seconds within years
“That level of sort of compounding improvement in processing power means that in just a few years, you're going to have systems that, you know, can think a lifetime worth of human thoughts in the time that you and I sort of think one or two thoughts, right?”
Kaplan: Superhuman Artificial Intelligence Systems Are Inevitable
“Well, I think it's certainly achievable, in my view to make AI systems that appear to be as intelligent in every way as a human and beyond that. I mean, we're gonna have AI systems, I'm fairly confident, that are not only as intelligent as us, but are way smar…”
Kaplan: AI has an 80% chance of massive upside alongside existential risk
“I'd say 80% chance this technology is the best thing ever to come along, and it's really going to lift up everybody's standard of living. It'll make a lot of people a lot of money. It, it'll do great things for the environment. I mean, new, you know, life exte…”
Katial: The future of storytelling is under 120 seconds due to ADHD
“I do believe that attention spans are really low. ADHD is a reality. And the future of storytelling lies under a 120 seconds.”
Ahuja: AI adoption will decouple GCC work output from employee headcount
“We know that the next wave of GCCs would be nonlinear manifestations. The output, work output, and the impact would not commensurate with the headcount that the GCCs have, right? They would be, you know, amplifiers that would be, you know, AI led, AI driven.”
Ahuja: GCC market will expand beyond Fortune 500 to top million companies
“It will become an infinite market. It's not just the fortune 500 or global 2000. It'll be the top million companies in the world. You can have five people and still run a GCC.”
Hoag: Rote individual contributor roles scaling with revenue are easiest to automate
“We do see a lot of the individual contributor jobs being automated away in a sense, right? So people who are doing rote repetitive tasks and just kind of, you know, one of my friends describes it as labor that scales with the business model. So if you're scali…”
AI can almost completely replace traditional property management services
“We are doing basically service that can be completely replaced or almost completely with AI.”
Armstrong: Next Five Years Will Transform Venture More Than Any Past Era
“The next five year period, if we just looked at the history of venture, the next five years are going to change venture more than any five year period in the history of venture.”
Rizik: Specialist venture funds will drive outsized returns over mega funds
“We're looking at more and more funds that are specialists, that may specialize in a specific industry, or a few industries, as opposed to being generalists. So that is counter to probably the way most people you talk to are looking at the world, but we think t…”
Morgan: Perplexity will be worth a couple hundred billion if successful
“I mean, we invested in perplexity at nine billion, which was kind of crazy in some ways. On the other hand, if it works, it's going to be worth a couple hundred billion.”
Morgan: Relying on secondaries will reduce overall VC industry returns
“It's going to cut off the long tail. And if you look at the Ubers and the Roblox's and so on, it's that long tail where you make the giant returns. And so if you keep squashing it down, then the overall industry returns are going to, are, there's no question t…”
Morgan: Agrees With Elon Musk That Earth Will Have Billions of Humanoids
“You know, Elon Musk has said he thinks there'll be billions of humanoids. I agree with him on that. I don't agree with him on a lot of things, but that one I do agree.”
Malhotra: A significant number of future pixels will be generated, not recorded
“I believe most, okay, the most, but a significant number of pixels in the world in the future are going to be generated. And not actually recorded.”
Pandemic-era Sunbelt syndications face underwater debts and forced cash-in refinances
“Where we're sitting right now is a lot of those purchases, 20, 20, 21, 22, their debts come and do and they're underwater. Like they're going to have to do what's called a cash in refinance. Which is a capital call to their investor base, which is not good.”
Gujral: Human-made content will command a premium in 20 years
“Over a period of time, and let's say 20 years from now, you'll have very small content which will be labeled as made by humans. Which will become very precious. Hey, this is actually made by humans. So you will create a premium on that content.”
Gujral: Media will bifurcate into AI short-form and premium human long-form
“Human-led experiences, human-led content will become a premium, and then content which is long-form, which again creates a premium, that somebody has the audacity to spend money and invest time and effort and money and resources to create something long-form, …”
Dye: Smaller venture funds lacking long-term track records will face consolidation
“There's gonna, I think there's gonna be a lot of smaller funds that if they don't have that long-term track record and help trust with LPs you know, raising a new fund might be pretty challenging, and so I do think there is going to be a bit of a shift and sor…”
McDowell predicts the US will build a strategic Bitcoin reserve
“If America start building a strategic Bitcoin reserve, which I think they will, they probably already have, right? And they're talking about it now, who knows how long they've been buying for.”
McDowell predicts peak cycle prices: BTC $150k, ETH $10k, SOL $700
“I think realistic targets for this cycle, Bitcoin, a hundred and 150 K Ethereum, probably 10 K plus Solana could go to six, 700.”
Posner: AI will crush the traditional law firm partner-to-associate leverage pyramid
“So we think that right now the law firm model says you have one partner, you have five associates. And we think that pyramid or that leverage model may get squeezed a little bit and you may see roles and responsibilities changing.”
Jeffrey: AI will not reduce code volume, just make code disposable
“There isn't going to be less code. The code just becomes less valuable throw away.”
Cordoba: Future innovation will come from non-coastal, blue-collar industries
“I think that the future of innovation is going to come from the
Less flashy industries than what we've seen historically.
I believe it's going to come from the regions and areas that, as I, listen, I born and raised California, love the West Coast.
I do believ…”