why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Brehm: The eVTOL market will consolidate around Joby, Archer, and Vertical
“There's Joby there's Archer that are US-based, there's Vertical which is UK-based. I think those are your top three, and the way I see it is it's very synonymous to take COVID vaccines, right? You have your Moderna Pfizer, J&J, maybe a little bit of Novavax, b…”
Insight
Brehm: Avoid direct eVTOL makers; invest in aviation-adjacent infrastructure
“Now, as an investor, I wouldn't touch it, because I think there's going to be a lot of saturation, there's going to be a lot of M&A activity, but where I would go, where no one is really talking about, is what are the infrastructure adjacent things to aviation…”
Opinion
Brehm: Cessna-to-CRJ pilot pipeline creates dangerous aviation safety risks
“And I think an area that people aren't quite talking about this just yet, when you look at pilot training right now what are they training in? They're training in these Cessna one 72 at these local airports, right? Like our aviation club likes to use to for ev…”
Insight
Brehm: Thought Leadership in Venture Is Founder-Driven, Not VC-Driven
“And I think when you talk about actual thought leadership, it's founder driven, it's not VC driven.”
Insight
Brehm: Cold outreach works better in VC than conventional wisdom suggests
“A lot of people will say, oh, just warm intros. No, do cold intros. Some of my best contacts are actually cold intros.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2040
Brehm: Commercial eVTOL deployment is definitely happening within 15 years
“And when you look at the institutional VC backing and these legacy players like United, American, Delta that are actively investing in this, it tells you that this is very much going to happen in the next 15 years.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Brehm: ZLCF secured a 90x return on a $50K Arbor Photonics check
“There was a company called Arbor Photonics, which is rebranded as Enlight. That company is actually publicly traded on the NASDAQ. We got a 90 X return on that investment. So we invested 50 K, right? And now it's the it's post exit was at four hundred fifty mi…”