The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Morgan: Relying on secondaries will reduce overall VC industry returns
“It's going to cut off the long tail. And if you look at the Ubers and the Roblox's and so on, it's that long tail where you make the giant returns. And so if you keep squashing it down, then the overall industry returns are going to, are, there's no question t…”
Howard Morgan Sep 2, 2025 ▶ 32:38 Howard Morgan on AI, Global Venture Investing & Founder Insights | NVCA Award Recipient Series
Assertion Partly supported
Uber and Meta Cap Employee AI Coding Spending at 1500 Monthly
“Uber famously just put a 1500 dollar per employee cap on vibe coding per month. Meta's been reported to do the same.”
Shaun Modi Aug 11, 2026 ▶ 36:18 Building the Intelligence Engine for Finance and National Security with Shaun Modi of Capitol AI
Insight
Benton: Cheap Money Made Power-Law Venture Investing Relatively Easy
“Money was so cheap that power law investing was relatively easy to do. Right. Make 20 bets, and if one becomes a unicorn, it lifts, it's the rising tide, you know, and if you were lucky enough to be an Uber or Tesla or Facebook or whomever, right, at the right…”
JT Benton May 13, 2025 ▶ 28:59 Inside the Venture Studio Model: JT Benton on Building Startups from the Ground Up
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Morgan: First Round's Uber Investment Returned 22x the Entire Fund
“And when it exited, Uber returned 22 times the whole fund.”
Howard Morgan Sep 2, 2025 ▶ 13:58 Howard Morgan on AI, Global Venture Investing & Founder Insights | NVCA Award Recipient Series
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Morgan: First Round's Roblox Investment Returned 23x to 24x the Fund
“So we did Roblox, and you know, that in the end returned even more than Uber. Like, 23, 24 XCI.”
Howard Morgan Sep 2, 2025 ▶ 14:29 Howard Morgan on AI, Global Venture Investing & Founder Insights | NVCA Award Recipient Series
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