why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Walker: Median Carta seed valuations exceed 2021 bubble peak
“At Seed, for instance, they're higher than they were in twenty-twenty-one, which was our most recent peak bubble era. And they're higher by a considerable amount. You know, the median seed valuation on Carta these days is probably something like 16 or seventee…”
Assertion Supported
Walker: Series A B2B software median ARR jumps from $1M to $3M
“Insofar as we can tell, if you take that core B to B software company, you know, used to be, you have a million bucks in ARR. You can start talking about a series A. Now it's three on median and the top end is more like seven or eight.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Walker: Median Series A startup headcount plummets from 25 to 16 employees
“You know, the median, so if you look at Series A companies on Carta, the ones that raised Series A in twenty-twenty-one, they had 25 people working for them. The ones that, that raised Series A in twenty-twenty-five had 16, and by the end of this year we think…”
Assertion Contradicted
Marquez: Carta data shows SF startup valuations two standard deviations above NY
“When I look at the data coming out of Carta I want to say, you know, the San Francisco Bay Area is generally two standard deviations greater than in valuations than number two, New York.”
Assertion Contradicted
Marquez: Carta Data Shows More VC Dollars Backing PhD and Older Founders
“You're seeing a lot more PhDs. You're seeing a lot more older founders. Yeah. You know, at least this is what's coming out of Carta in terms of where they're seeing investment dollars flow.”
Assertion Contradicted
Walker: Carta down rounds peaked at 22% in 2022
“In the peak of that, in 20, 22, 22% were down rounds.”
Insight
Walker: Lean teams replace headcount as the new startup status symbol
“You know, it candidly, if you put a tagline on that, it used to be really cool to say how many people worked for you. The higher the number, the better. And now the exact opposite is true. You want to have as lean a team as possible. You know, the idea of havi…”
Assertion Supported
Walker: Carta manages 60,000 startup cap tables and 2,500-3,000 venture funds
“Carta sits on top of the cap table of 60,000 startups these days, as well as fund admin for two and a half to 3000 US venture funds.”
Assertion Supported
Walker: Startup down rounds drop to 15%, signaling a healthier venture market
“Right now we're hovering at about 15%, so on the downslope, things are getting more healthy, but we're not back to where we were before.”