Prediction certainty 4/5 debate potential 2/5

Kaplan: Industry Will Know Within 2-3 Years If Scaling Laws Slow Down

Craig Kaplan · AI Safety with Craig Kaplan of iQ Company | The Innovators & Investors Podcast · Jan 27, 2026 · at 18:45

Craig Kaplan discusses Yann LeCun's skepticism about scaling transformer models and whether data and compute limits will stall progress toward superintelligence.

0:00 / 0:06exact quote · 6.1s
720p mp4 · rendered on demand · StarZero watermark
“We'll find out in the next, you know, two, three years if that's really happening, if it's really slowing down. So far it hasn't.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

More from Craig Kaplan

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kaplan: AI Will Function as an Autonomous, Alien Intelligence Within Five Years
“When I go out, you know, five plus years, I realize that this is not really a tool. What's happening is we're having a technology that's more like an intelligent entity. It's more, it's closer to an alien intelligence than it is a tool, and this alien intellig…”
Craig Kaplan Jan 27, 2026 ▶ 7:24 AI Safety with Craig Kaplan of iQ Company | The Innovators & Investors Podcast
Opinion
Kaplan: Democratic AI Resists Bad Actors Better Than Monolithic Silicon Valley LLMs
“I think that's a much more sort of robust and resistant to bad actor kind of design than having one giant LLM. You don't know how it operates because that's another problem. They're big black boxes and the value system was programmed in by five people at open …”
Craig Kaplan Jan 27, 2026 ▶ 20:40 AI Safety with Craig Kaplan of iQ Company | The Innovators & Investors Podcast
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kaplan: AI will process a lifetime of human thoughts in seconds within years
“That level of sort of compounding improvement in processing power means that in just a few years, you're going to have systems that, you know, can think a lifetime worth of human thoughts in the time that you and I sort of think one or two thoughts, right?”
Craig Kaplan Jan 27, 2026 ▶ 6:14 AI Safety with Craig Kaplan of iQ Company | The Innovators & Investors Podcast
Insight
Kaplan: Coordinated AI Communities Will Outperform Any Monolithic System
“Each individual entity, whether it's a large language model or human, doesn't need to be a super genius. You can just be kind of okay. But together in aggregate, if you coordinate them in the right way, the community itself will be smarter than anything on the…”
Craig Kaplan Jan 27, 2026 ▶ 19:38 AI Safety with Craig Kaplan of iQ Company | The Innovators & Investors Podcast
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kaplan: Superhuman Artificial Intelligence Systems Are Inevitable
“Well, I think it's certainly achievable, in my view to make AI systems that appear to be as intelligent in every way as a human and beyond that. I mean, we're gonna have AI systems, I'm fairly confident, that are not only as intelligent as us, but are way smar…”
Craig Kaplan Jan 27, 2026 ▶ 37:06 AI Safety with Craig Kaplan of iQ Company | The Innovators & Investors Podcast
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kaplan: AI has an 80% chance of massive upside alongside existential risk
“I'd say 80% chance this technology is the best thing ever to come along, and it's really going to lift up everybody's standard of living. It'll make a lot of people a lot of money. It, it'll do great things for the environment. I mean, new, you know, life exte…”
Craig Kaplan Jan 27, 2026 ▶ 46:43 AI Safety with Craig Kaplan of iQ Company | The Innovators & Investors Podcast
Made with StarZero

Turn any episode into a week of clips.

This entire site, over 100 episodes transcribed, diarized, checked and made playable, runs on the StarZero media pipeline. Drop in your own episode and the podcast clipper finds the moments worth sharing, cuts them, captions them, and reframes them for every feed.