Shtabtsovsky: Backtested AI Deal-Sourcing Algorithm Yields 14x Portfolio Returns
Cyril Shtabtsovsky · Harnessing AI in Venture Capital: Inside AlphaSemantic with Cyril Shtabtsovsky · Aug 1, 2025 · at 11:05
Cyril Shtabtsovsky is the founder of AlphaSemantic, an AI tool for VC deal sourcing. He describes the research paper that served as the foundational model for the platform.
0:00 / 0:32exact quote · 32.5s
720p mp4 · rendered on demand · StarZero watermark
“So in the paper I mentioned before that inspired the tool, actually we predicted, so we backtested this algorithm finding the companies and it predicted to have a 14 times revelation on the whole portfolio of startups that you invest in using this algorithm. So it's like top two percent of funds out there, of the funds returns out there, 14 times in the whole portfolio, so meaning you put in a million and get back fourteen million.”
quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →
More from Cyril Shtabtsovsky
Shtabtsovsky: AI Sourcing Algorithm Predicts Startup Exits With 86% Accuracy
“There is another metric that probably worth mentioning is that the algorithm is right in about 86% of the cases that it's solving. So it's, again, it's looking at the startup and deciding ultimately, will it have an exit, a good exit, Or not. And in 86% chance…”
Shtabtsovsky: AI Deal Sourcing Commoditizes Discovery, Strengthening Top VC Brands
“If everyone's using the same signals and get to the same startups at the same time, I think the brand, the random of the funds using that, that's ultimately what Matters, for example, Sequoia, Andreessen Horvitz, and other great funds out there, they will cont…”
Shtabtsovsky: Data-Driven VC Research Shows Somewhat Technical CEOs Perform Better
“Yeah, I think there are a couple of papers out there and a couple of, again, data-driven VCs who publish some results of the data and statistics, and I think, yes, it's it is, is the case that some, somewhat technical CEOs make the better CEOs.”
Shtabtsovsky: First Solo Billionaire Will Emerge From Deep Tech AI, Not SaaS
“So I, I'd love to see some self-made billionaire on SaaS, but it's probably going to be some deep tech AI stuff, say Andre Carpati or some other guy with the same brain or something can develop some AI agent or AGI that can handle all that.”