The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 62 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 5 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Song: In five years, AI's outcome will be viewed as completely obvious
“I've joked with some people right now that regardless of the outcome of AI, it's all going to be completely obvious in five years, right? Like, how can no one tell that, you know, this was all a sham or the greatest thing that we've ever seen, right? And every…”
Enterprise security risks will worsen as personal AI assistants gain broader access
“And that's only going to get worse with AI, because one of the cool things to me about the way we're going with AI is you're going to have your little AI buddy, right, your AI paperclip, for those who remember Clippy, you know, who's going to help you with eve…”
AI may allow software tools to avoid bloated interfaces by bypassing navigation
“AI bypasses a lot of, like, navigation and complexity. And so we might see kind of like a different set of incentives emerging or kind of tools evolving separately or, you know, tools not feeling the pressure to kind of keep adding to their interfaces and rath…”
Schillace: Google Workspace and Microsoft Office are reaching market stasis
“And I think it's hard for either one company to fully become what the other one is and take, take the whole market. So I think we're getting close to stasis on this actually.”
Pilarinos: Someone will eventually solve construction and renovation tech GTM
“It is an incredibly underserved market from a technology perspective, but I think the go to market's actually really, really hard for it. It feels like at some point someone's going to figure out the Incantation between these two things.”
LLM inference costs will decrease significantly in relatively short order
“I think you're gonna see the cost of inference tend to go down. Inference is the cost to actually serve and run the model. I think you're gonna see those things go down in relatively short order.”
AI industry focus will shift from foundation models to workflows and UIs
“I think we're going to move from focusing a lot on the models and the foundations to focusing on the workflows and the tools and the UIs and the specific products that we built around AI models. And that's going to be, I think, a lot of the focus for kind of t…”
Photorealistic video generation will not remain a permanent differentiator for Runway
“We assume there's going to be a point in the future where Everyone's going to have a photorealistic video generation model. Like we don't expect this is going to be the differentiating aspect of runway forever.”
Software engineering focus will dramatically shift toward product design and UI
“I think a lot of the focus shifts to creativity. Really? The thing that we've been trying to do with the front-end cloud, it accelerates, which is work on your product, work on the user interface, work on the thing that touches another human being and gives th…”
Gartner will adopt the 'DevSecOps platform' category within three years
“And so that's not something that happens overnight. That's something that will take about three years probably for Gartner to say, no, GitLab was right. It is a DevSecOps platform MQ that we're going to do.”
AI models will likely never reach total accuracy for subjective feedback categorization
“Cause we will never, it's very unlikely we'll ever get to a hundred percent. And so we'll get, you know, 90, 95, 99. But we'll always make sure that they have the ability to then do that last mile of analysis on their own. And so that's something that we have …”
Many companies will hire AI architects to sit alongside the CTO
“Going forward many companies will bring on AI architects that might even be at the same level or report directly to a CTO to think about what are the models that we're going to use and what are the boundaries of AI and how can we build reproducible AI and thin…”
The next 12 to 18 months of AI will target hallucinations and math
“To your original question, I think issues like those, hallucinations, lack of quant answering, those are probably going to be the major things that get released over the next couple years. I don't know what that looks like. You know, it might be an LLM that's …”
Kracov: Multi-product platform approaches create harder sales but bigger businesses
“It makes the sales process a lot harder too, because you just,
You're, as a sales rep, you have to be trained to be able to speak to a lot of different use cases and you deal with wildly different competitive sets.
So that's like a danger of this approach, but…”