why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Sussman warns refining industry may lock into blue hydrogen permanently
“It's really scary to me to think that the whole refining industry, which is one of the two largest users of gray hydrogen today, and is a prime candidate for switching to green, could go permanently in the direction of blue now, Sussman said.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Munster: Many Hydrogen Projects Past FID Will Cancel Under 45V
“I would expect that a significant number of projects that have hit FID are no longer going to move forward, he said. They're looking at redesigning their system, downscaling their system, or canceling the project entirely.”
Prediction Held up
Munster: Foreign Electrolyzers Will Reach Half the Cost of Western Units
“At some point, those foreign electrolyzers are going to cost, installed, half the price that ours do, because we're not moving down the cost curve while they are.”
Opinion
Munster: 45V additionality rules effectively exclude hydro and nuclear
“That essentially removes hydro and nuclear power from the running, Munster said.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Munster: US green hydrogen ecosystem will not arrive before 2030
“We're not going to be there until twenty-thirty at least. And it's questionable we'll ever get there with the trajectory we're on now.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sussman estimates hourly matching will raise Nueces hydrogen costs by 20%
“Sussman estimates the price increase for the Nuesa's project with hourly matching to be at least 20%.”
Assertion Supported
BNEF: Only 9% of 2030 Planned Clean Hydrogen Has Offtake Agreements
“According to data from Bloomberg NEF, only around nine percent of low-carbon hydrogen expected to be online by twenty-thirty has an off-take agreement. Of those agreements, only 23% are binding.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
BNEF: Most Electrolyzers Lack Proven Capability for Hourly Matching
“Most electrolyzers on the market haven't proven that they can deal with the fluctuations needed for hourly matching, explained BNEF, hydrogen analyst, Pyle Core.”
Insight
Munster: Cost-effective renewable hydrogen requires 24/7 facility operations
“There are very few cases in which you can produce hydrogen that's renewable and make it cost-effective for reliable delivery without having twenty-four-seven operations.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Novo Hydrogen: 45V credit will halve green hydrogen production costs
“For a twenty-year project, Novo estimates that the 45 V tax credit will reduce the end cost of green hydrogen by two dollars and 50 cents per kilogram, cutting it roughly in half.”
Assertion Supported
Pro-guidance hydrogen coalition claims 50 GW US electrolyzer pipeline
“The signatories have a pipeline of more than 50 gigawatts of electrolyzer projects in the U.S., they said, which is ample volume to achieve electrolyzer cost reductions, spur investment, and ensure cost competitiveness.”
Assertion Supported
EU clean hydrogen regulations delay hourly matching requirements until 2030
“The 45 V guidelines are potentially more strict than the parallel guidance in the European Union, which allows for some grandfathering, requires monthly matching through twenty-twenty-nine, and doesn't move to hourly matching until twenty-thirty.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Refiners Target 10% to 25% Returns on Capital Projects
“Most refining companies are looking for a 10 to 25% return on capital projects, and there aren't many incentives for them to make the extra investment for the higher-priced green hydrogen.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jenkins: LDES Council membership will soon peak as battery startups consolidate
“I spoke with Julia Sauter, she's the CEO of the Long Duration Energy Storage Council, and she said that she's just anticipating that their number of members will peak shortly, because right now they have Many, many members, but she anticipates that as the indu…”
Assertion Supported
Only three of nine REC systems can track hourly data
“According to 20 23 data from the Center for Resource Solutions, only three out of nine tracking systems currently have the ability to track hourly data.”
Assertion Supported
DOE report shows tripling VPPs redirects peaker plant spending
“I mean, it outlined kind of how tripling the current rate of VPPs could, and I quote, support rapid electrification while redirecting grid spending from peaker plants to participants and reducing overall grid costs.”
Assertion Supported
Jenkins: Amazon commits to buy 250k tons of carbon removal credits
“Amazon is committing to purchase 250,000 tons of removal credits over 10 years, which is honestly a fairly standard amount as far as these commitments go, and is
Just a drop in the bucket, to be clear, compared to what's needed.”