why aren't all 40 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
The US currently lacks commercial-scale green hydrogen production facilities
“We actually don't have capacity to do that in the U.S. Today. There's a lot of Fossil-based carbon-emitting hydrogen in the US today. I couldn't find any, like, commercial scale, like, real operation pumping out green hydrogen yet”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Spector: Home battery pack supply constraints have effectively ended
“It's just kind of a whole new world where instead of having that whole market dependent on, like, how many units Tesla feels like shipping this quarter there's now seemingly not going to be any real constraint on the supply of battery packs to homes.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Spector: A real carbon capture market will emerge this decade
“I think we might actually start seeing a real carbon capture market appearing in, in the next decade because of these credits.”
Assertion Supported
Spector: Clean Energy Factories Are the Top Job Creators in Several States
“In many of these states up into like new clean energy factories are the biggest new job creators in the entire state. And we're talking like Georgia, Tennessee you know, West Virginia, like, you know, places that, that are really eager to have these, even if p…”
Assertion Supported
IRA Puts US on Track for 40% Emissions Cut by 2030
“If you average out the outlooks now We're headed for, on the high end of the spectrum, cutting the U.S. Emissions economy-wide, 40% from the 2005 levels by 2030.”
Assertion Supported
US DOE commits $7 billion to regional hydrogen hubs
“President Biden announced these hydrogen hubs where the DOE is, is putting a total of seven billion dollars into these regional clusters of hydrogen production and use and transportation and distribution in different corners of America.”
Assertion Supported
Most fossil-based hydrogen is captive and consumed directly within petrochemical hubs
“Most of the fossil-based hydrogen isn't really getting sold out to the market anyways. It's kind of being created in these petrochemical hubs and then put right back into refining or chemicals processes.”
Prediction Held up
The US will have multiple industrial-scale clean hydrogen plants within three years
“It seems like we're about to cross this line from there really being no industrial-scale clean hydrogen production in the U.S. To there being a bunch in the next two, three years even.”
Assertion Supported
Spector: ESS is delivering ~2 GWh of iron flow batteries to SMUD
“ESS with this iron flow technology is, is delivering to Sacramento's municipal utility something on the order of like two, two gigawatt hours over a course of several years. And they've started the initial installations there.”
Assertion Partly supported
Spector: Hawaii Aggregated Nearly 30 MW in Home Battery Capacity Within a Year
“Within a year, they got close to, like, 30 megawatts of capacity out of all this which makes it definitely one of the largest Aggregations of home battery capacity in the country.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Spector: Analysts Anticipate 10x US Battery Cell Capacity Growth by 2027
“Some of the analysts I talked to anticipated 10 X growth in, in cell capacity by twenty-twenty-seven.”
Assertion Partly supported
OhmConnect customers reduce summer energy use by 10.2% on average
“He said they've noticed when people sign up, they'll compare the, like, key summer months energy consumption to the year before the customer signed up, and they reduce energy use by 10.2% on average.”
Assertion Supported
Spector: Many large-scale solar projects in Hawaii have delayed timelines
“And it turns out that there's very widespread concern in, in, The Hawaii energy policy community, because a lot of those big solar projects have slipped their timelines.”
Assertion Supported
Spector: AES filed force majeure claims over delayed solar modules
“We've even been seeing some developers like AES the same AES, in fact, is building some new renewables projects, but filed some force majeure claims recently that their solar modules were getting caught up by, Some federal, ah, inspections and that was delayin…”
Assertion Supported
Spector: Hawaii enacted policies discouraging rooftop solar grid exports
“Hawaii has a lot of rooftop solar today, and in fact, so much rooftop solar that they, the state put in place these policies to kind of discourage anyone from exporting more to the grid.”
Assertion Supported
Inflation Reduction Act hydrogen production tax credits reach $3 per kilogram
“The credits in the Inflation Reduction Act Go up to three dollars a kilogram.”
Assertion Supported
Spector: Energy Dome operates megawatt-scale CO2 storage and builds utility projects
“There's a Italian company called Energy Dome that Has, like, a big, kind of, balloon of carbon dioxide to store energy, and they're already operating a megawatt scale project and at work on a much bigger one for utility customers.”
Assertion Supported
Spector: Majority of Hawaii's Electricity Still Comes from Burning Oil
“The majority of power in Hawaii is still from burning oil, actually, because that's what you can ship in.”
Assertion Supported
Spector: Hawaii Has More Rooftop Solar Capacity Than Utility-Scale Solar
“There's more solar capacity on rooftops in Hawaii than in utility scale projects.”
Assertion Supported
Developers build 800 MW solar plant on Kentucky coal mine
“We have started to see, for instance, solar developers targeting old coal mines. I just wrote about one in, in Kentucky where they're literally building the, 800 megawatt solar plant on a decommissioned coal mine seems clearly targeted at claiming those credit…”
Assertion Supported
Spector: Qcells Is Building a Fully US-Based Solar Supply Chain
“Qcells is the solar manufacturer that has already had a factory in Georgia, but they're drastically scaling up capacity and even adding the cell and wafer, like the earlier Precursor steps so that it's a full US-based supply chain for their solar production.”
Assertion Supported
Octopus Energy cut 108 MW of demand with 400,000 flexible customers
“And they got like a 400,000 people to sign up almost overnight. And in the first event that they responded to with this kind of decentralized grid response fleet, they lowered demand by a 108 megawatts, which is like a serious amount of power.”
Assertion Supported
Octopus Energy offers 20% electricity discount for managed EV charging
“If you're a customer of their electricity and you get a EV and you say, hey, you can control my smart EV charger within certain parameters schedule when it charges up they chop your rate per kilowatt hour electricity by 20%.”
Assertion Supported
Spector: 88% of Sonnen's US batteries participate in virtual power plants
“Yeah, so Sonnen it was actually 88% of the batteries they've installed in the U.S. Are part of some sort of virtual power plant or grid, grid interactive program, which is just a wild statistic compared to the norm for the market where, you know, most people a…”
Assertion Partly supported
OhmConnect manages 300,000 grid-interactive homes globally and 250,000 California devices
“They've got 300,000 grid interactive homes worldwide. That they're managing, and in California, which is their main base of operations they've got 250,000 appliances and devices under their control.”
Assertion Supported
Spector: New York crossed four gigawatts of installed distributed solar capacity
“They just crossed four, four gigawatts installed of distributed and, you know, there's a lot on roofs.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Expanding global lithium mining takes years due to environmental permitting
“You know, you can't just spin up a new lithium mine in a brief period of time to respond to these high prices. You got to get the land and environmental permits, and there's all sorts of things. So it could actually take years to kind of expand the global mini…”
Assertion Supported
The decade-long trajectory of falling lithium-ion battery prices has halted
“For many years over the last decade or so, there'd been this perception that lithium ion batteries, they just get cheaper over time. You would hear that again and again, this onward march of lower prices as the factories scale up, and that's a huge reason that…”
Assertion Supported
Biden invoked the Defense Production Act for critical battery minerals
“Seeing the way global energy markets have been roiled by the Ukraine invasion has really drawn a clear link between clean energy policy and national security policy, and you see, like, President Biden invoking Defense Production Act For battery minerals, calli…”
Assertion Supported
Redwood Materials raised $700 million at a $3.7 billion valuation
“Redwood Materials, they raised seven hundred million dollars last summer, which is, Huge for the kind of climate tech, clean tech space. That, that deal valued them at 3.7 billion dollars.”
Assertion Supported
Li-Cycle raised over $500 million through a SPAC merger
“Lifecycle did a SPAC and that pulled in over five hundred million dollars. And then they've gotten A few hundred million more since then from, like, Koch strategic platforms as well as from a major mining conglomerate.”
Assertion Supported
Electric vehicles reached eight percent of global new car sales
“I think we're now Into the eight percent of new cars globally are electric, and it's just gonna keep growing from there.”
Assertion Supported
Spector: Oahu's AES coal plant will shut down in September 2022
“It's going to have to shut down next year in September, 20, 22.”
Assertion Supported
Spector: Oahu's new battery matches retiring coal plant's grid capacity
“And then this capital A energy storage battery, which is in many ways the linchpin of the whole plan for Oahu, because it's located just down the street from the coal plant. So it plugs into the same part of the grid that the coal plant used to serve, and it's…”
Assertion Supported
Spector: Hawaii offers up to $4,000 credits for residential battery exports
“Now they're also paying what they call the battery bonus, where if you add a, Battery to your house when you already have solar you could get up to like 4000 dollars of credit for making that, that battery power available in the evening hours.”
Assertion Supported
Spector: Kauai utility pioneered solar-plus-storage and explores pumped hydro
“Look at the island of Kauai where the electric cooperative there, they really pioneered the solar plus battery plant as a concept several years ago, they built more batteries. Then they basically got as much mileage out of that as they could. And now they're e…”
Assertion Supported
Spector: RE+ attendance reached 40,000, roughly doubling across two shows
“So they're saying about 40,000 people, which you know, there, there's already a surge last year, because it came a few weeks after the Inflation Reduction Act passed and you could feel that energy on the floor in Anaheim, which is a much tougher city to have t…”
Assertion Supported
Spector: Duracell and Energizer home batteries are brand-licensed products
“It turns out the Duracell and the Energizer are actually kind of licensed, so it's, it, it's not, like, directly those companies manufacturing it, but they, you know, they have to maintain a level of quality to, like, keep that license.”
Assertion Supported
Spector: New York's grid is roughly 50% zero-emission via hydro and nuclear
“Now if you look at the way the energy system works right now, statewide, it's pretty good. It's, like, 50% zero emission. A lot of that's actually hydro and the nuclear that you all have allowed to continue running.”
Assertion Partly supported
Spector: Oahu's coal facility is the island's largest power plant
“And it's the largest power plant on Oahu which is the largest Hawaiian island by population. There's about a million people Benefiting from the power this coal plant creates.”