The Ledger
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Global gas supplies cannot replace a complete Russian cutoff to Europe
“If you had a complete Cut off in Russian gas exports to Europe. There's almost no way to make up for that. There's just not enough molecules. There's not enough natural gas around the world.”
Gulf Arab producers will likely be the last oil exporters standing
“And I suspect the places it'll come from are the ones that can produce the oil most cheaply and most cleanly. And Gulf, Gulf Arab producers like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates they look pretty good on both of those accounts. They're very low cost, and …”
Saudi Arabia gains geopolitical power by intentionally withholding oil production
“I think it's fair to say that Saudi Arabia has more influence in global geopolitics because they are the only country, even though shale can be ramped up and down more quickly than traditional oil. They're the only country that intentionally, at a cost to them…”
Lowest-cost fossil fuel producers may gain influence as global demand shrinks
“So there's a multi-decade process of transition where the cheapest suppliers of hydrocarbon might actually produce a larger share of the pie, even though it's a shrinking pie, they're producing a larger share of it, and they have more influence, and that influ…”
Fossil and clean energy geopolitics will overlap for decades
“There's a multi-decade period where the old geopolitics of energy Are layered on top of the new geopolitics of clean energy, and we're going to have to address the risks, challenges, opportunities around both.”
Private oil majors supply just 15% of global oil and gas
“We should remember that when you put them all together, they're only 15% of world oil and gas supply. Most of the world's oil and gas comes from state controlled companies.”
Clean energy will reduce geopolitical influence by localizing power generation
“A clean energy world is, in many respects, going to reduce the geopolitical influence of energy, because it's inherently more local.”
IEA projects global energy trade drops by two-thirds in net-zero world
“The International Energy Agency, for that reason, projects that total global trade in energy in a net zero world is around just over one third what it would be otherwise.”
Critical mineral leverage will likely not match Saudi oil influence
“And that is a source of influence for those countries, but probably not in the same way that I think dependence on, say, you know, one country like Saudi Arabia is for oil.”
Countries could threaten economic sanctions over climate policy within 10 years
“Is it totally far-fetched to think five or 10 years from now a country is using the threat of economic sanctions to compel countries to Take stronger climate action or stop building coal power plants. I think that would be extreme today, but I could see that c…”
Russia is likely to be a loser in the green energy transition
“It's going to be, I think, harder for a country like Russia to make that transition. So they may be more of a loser in a transition.”
Bordoff: Europe Relies on Russia for Up to 40% of Gas
“Europe depends very heavily. It has for a long time, and that really hasn't changed on Russia for anywhere to a third to even 40% of its natural gas consumption.”
IEA Net Zero 2050 scenario still requires 25% of current oil
“The International Energy Agency, again, did this big landmark report on what net zero looks like by twenty-fifty, and in that world, if we get there, We're using 25% as much oil as today and about half as much natural gas as we are today.”
Geopolitical energy leverage derives from swing capacity, not total production
“I think the most significant Dimension of geopolitical influence that comes from energy is not only the amount of production, but the swing supply capacity, the ability to ramp production up or lower it very quickly.”
China and a few nations dominate critical mineral mining and refining
“A small number of countries dominate not only where those are mined and produced, but where they're refined and processed, particularly that is in China.”