why aren't all 21 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Unregulated grid-powered hydrogen could double emissions compared to fossil fuels
“Without any restrictions on hydrogen production from grid electricity, the emissions of hydrogen production in the U.S. Could be double that from producing just hydrogen from fossil fuels directly.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Unregulated grid-powered hydrogen would add 200 million metric tons of CO2
“The worst case is really that there's really no requirements for hydrogen production from grid electricity, which means, in the end, you end up creating more emissions than what fossil hydrogen production is already creating today. So let's say the U.S. Actual…”
Prediction Partly held up
US hydrogen rules will likely adopt three pillars with phase-ins
“The U.S. Guidance is likely to follow these three pillars that are outlined on additionality, temporal matching, and deliverability or geographic correlation with some sort of phase in, particularly on the requirement for additionality, so for new renewable en…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Green hydrogen will become cheaper than blue hydrogen by 2030
“If we scaled it up to potentially hundreds of gigawatts by the end of the decade and going further, we expect the cost of that equipment to decline by 50, 60, or 70% or so, which really drives cost reductions of Green or renewable hydrogen below the cost of pr…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2050
Hydrogen electrolyzers could consume one-third of global power by 2050
“By twenty-fifty, under a net zero scenario, electrolyzers producing hydrogen take up a third of all electricity demand almost, just to power power themselves to produce hydrogen. So all of global, a third of all global electricity demand.”
Assertion Supported
BNEF estimates over $120 billion in subsidies for announced hydrogen projects
“We estimated, I think, over a hundred twenty billion dollars in subsidies that could go to all the announced clean hydrogen projects.”
Assertion Supported
Air Products backs strict hydrogen rules while Plug Power opposes them
“Companies were really interested in producing large volumes of clean hydrogen, like air products, and manufacturers of electrolyzers like electric hydrogen have come out in favor of very stringent standards on, on hydrogen production. Whereas others, like Plug…”
Prediction Held up
2030 green hydrogen goals would consume 16% of new renewables
“If about a 20 millimetric tons or so of clean hydrogen are produced globally by the end of the decade, And we got to about 16% of all the renewables we expect to deploy this decade will just go to the production of hydrogen.”
Assertion Supported
NextEra Energy Advocates Phasing In Clean Hydrogen Grid Rules Over Time
“And then there's a bunch of companies in the middle of this debate which want some rules on clean hydrogen production from the grid, like NextEra Energy in the US, but are arguing for a phase in of these requirements over time.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Strict hydrogen rules could reduce emissions by 95% versus fossil fuels
“Stringent requirements, on the other hand, mean that your, that hydrogen production using electrolyzers is actually emissions reducing, potentially 95% lower than the fossil alternative that you have, and potentially even more if you consider all the positive …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
EU hydrogen import demand will set global production standards
“Because the EU is looking to become the largest importer of clean hydrogen globally that means that their rules really, really affect hydrogen production elsewhere, particularly for markets looking to export hydrogen to Europe and basically set a global standa…”
Insight
Final 5% to 6% of net-zero emissions abatement relies on hydrogen
“You can get very far in terms of emissions abatement just with clean power and electrification of end uses alone. That gets you, like, 80, 90% of the way. Then adding carbon capture and storage also gets you much closer. But the final five, six percent or so o…”
Insight
Hydrogen is essential to produce primary steel and reach net zero
“And in sectors that have no other alternative to using hydrogen, for example, as a fuel and heavy transport like ships and planes for steel production, hydrogen is one of the few options to produce primary steel. So it's absolutely essential that hydrogen gets…”
Assertion Supported
Largest operating electrolyzer outside China is only 20 megawatts
“The largest electrolyzer operating outside of China is just 20 megawatts in size.”
Prediction Held up
Proposed manufacturing can meet hundreds of gigawatts of demand by 2030
“In terms of, if you look at the supply chain we think there's enough proposed electrolyzer manufacturing capacity and proposals to do, build more electrolyzers that you could supply all those few hundred gigawatts of electrolyzers by the end of the decade if a…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
IRA and international subsidies will likely equalize green hydrogen production costs
“In terms of the cost of production, with the US Inflation Reduction Act and subsidies in Europe and East Asia those will probably level out the cost of production, even at more expensive electrolyzer costs today.”
Assertion Supported
Announced clean hydrogen projects through 2030 total 8 million metric tons
“Based on the announced projects that we are seeing out to 2030 we see about eight million metric tons of clean hydrogen, so both forms proposed, which is about 80% of what the U.S. Is using today and about 80% of the U.S. DOE's target as well.”
Assertion Supported
Producing a kilogram of green hydrogen requires 50 kWh of power
“Each kilogram of hydrogen production today requires about 50 kilowatt hours of electricity to be supplied to that electrolyzer to produce that electricity.”
Assertion Supported
Hydrogen electrolyzers convert only around 70% of electricity input
“Electrolyzers are also not that efficient, only converting about 70% or so of the electricity that you supply into energy in the form of hydrogen.”
Assertion Supported
Global electrolyzer sales stand at one gigawatt annually, mostly in China
“We're selling about a gigawatt of them every year. Most of those are deployed in China.”
Assertion Partly supported
Environmental groups run Washington Post ad demanding stricter hydrogen rules
“A number of green groups, including the Environmental Defense Funds and NRDC and Evergreen Action, were posting an ad in the Washington Post saying, don't spend billions on pollution, keep climate pollution out of the clean hydrogen tax credit. So basically ar…”