Assertion Supported AI assessment confidence: 95% certainty 4/5 debate potential 3/5

Proposed coastal spine alone still allows massive Houston Ship Channel surge

Dr. Jim Blackburn · The Ike Dike: the biggest civil engineering project in US history · Nov 9, 2022 · at 27:39

Dr. Jim Blackburn is an environmental lawyer and co-director of Rice University's SSPEED Center discussing storm surge models for the proposed Texas coastal barrier.

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“A category five storm coming in south of Galveston, you know, south of the Galveston Bay entrance channel with the coastal spine in place would generate about 22 to 24 foot of flooding up the ship, up the Houston ship channel. Almost as bad as without, without any protection. I mean, a category five without protection would probably be up around 27, 28 feet, something like that. So there's four, there's five or six feet of relief, but it's still 22 to 24 feet of surge coming up.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

The claim, plainly

SSPEED Center modeling indicates a Category 5 hurricane hitting south of Galveston Bay with the coastal spine barrier in place would still generate 22 to 24 feet of storm surge flooding up the Houston Ship Channel.

a quote alone can be ambiguous, so this restates it with the references and context of the conversation around it resolved. AI-written; the tape below the player is the source.

Assessment

The claim accurately reflects published SSPEED Center hydrodynamic modeling results. In the March 2021 Baker Institute report 'Houston Flooding: 3.5 Years After Harvey' and the June 2022 Galveston Bay Park Plan technical documentation, SSPEED Center ADCIRC modeling led by Dr. Clint Dawson demonstrated that a Category 5 hurricane making landfall south of Galveston Bay (e.g., at San Luis Pass) with the proposed coastal spine in place would overtop the barrier and drive 22 to 25 (and up to 26) feet of storm surge flooding up the Houston Ship Channel.

March 2021 Baker Institute report ('Houston Flooding: 3.5 Years After Harvey') detailing SSPEED Center/UT Austin ADCIRC simulations of a Category 5 storm at San Luis Pass with the coastal spine in place resulting in 22 to 25 feet of surge along the Houston Ship Channel
June 2022 Rice University/SSPEED Center Galveston Bay Park Plan technical documentation confirming 22 to 26 feet of floodwater reaching the Houston Ship Channel under severe south-of-bay storm tracks with only the coastal spine in place

Checked against

[1] propublica.org [2] houstonchronicle.com [3] bakerinstitute.org [4] rice.edu [5] bakerinstitute.org [6] energysociety.org [7] bakerinstitute.org [8] rice.edu

"SSPEED" "Galveston Bay Park Plan" "Category 5" "surge" "coastal spine" SSPEED Center coastal spine Category 5 Houston Ship Channel storm surge 22 24 feet "SSPEED" "coastal spine" "Category 5" "Houston Ship Channel" "SSPEED" "22 to 24 feet" OR "22-24 feet" OR "24 feet" "Houston Ship Channel" SSPEED Center Galveston Bay storm surge Category 5 Houston Ship Channel 22 feet 24 feet "Houston Flooding 3.5 Years After Harvey" "Category 5" "SSPEED"

assessed as of 2026-09-02

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Mentioned

coastal spine Galveston Bay Houston Ship Channel

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Assertion Supported

24-foot surge would flood 2,200 Houston hazardous material storage tanks

“There's about, oh, I think, around 4500 storage tanks that are filled with oil and hazardous material. And about 2200 of them would be flooded with a 24 foot surge.”

Dr. Jim Blackburn Nov 9, 2022 ▶ 12:48 The Ike Dike: the biggest civil engineering project in US history

Assertion Supported

Houston storm surge could instantly release half a Deepwater Horizon spill

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Proposed coastal spine alone still allows massive Houston Ship Channel surge

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