why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Lieberman: Short-form video agencies will commoditize and suffer poor retention
“I fear those agencies are going, they're going to be super commoditized because they're very easy to spin up. I worried that retention of customers wouldn't be high because it would be hard for customers who are, let's say, paying 3000 dollars a month to actua…”
Opinion
Pujji: TikTok is the exact asset Microsoft has wanted for two decades
“Microsoft, on the other hand, this is the asset they've been waiting for like two decades.”
Insight
Alex Lieberman: 10% of social content drives 90% of audience growth
“There very much is kind of this power law of there are, let's call it. 10% of your, whether it's tweets, Whether it's your TikTok videos, whether it's your YouTube videos that contribute to 90% of your followers or subscribers.”
Insight
Jesse Pujji: Never spend more than $50 daily when launching social ads
“Facebook and TikTok, I mean, there's overhead and learning how to use their platforms. That's real. And so I would never start by spending more than 50 bucks a day.”
Insight
Pujji: Creators Should Fear Irrelevance and Low Quality, Not Public Judgment
“Your problem is not going to be that people are going to see your content and judge you. It's going to be that your content's not very good, and they're not going to see it. And like, but that's the reality of all these things, right? Like, the more I've been …”
Insight
Pujji: Adopting established 'best practice' video hooks is usually too late
“By the time the thing makes its way to a best practice hook, it's basically too late.”
Insight
Medeiros: 70% to 80% of short-form video success depends on the hook
“So I'll say about 80 through 70% of the video is just like the hook, which is like the 1:03 seconds.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Pujji: Future e-commerce websites will look like TikTok and Instagram
“The e-comm website hasn't changed in 15 years and we're going to give all the tools to the merchants to make them, it's going to look just like TikTok and Instagram in the future.”
Opinion
Amoruso: Twitter DMs Drive Real Professional Opportunities Unlike Instagram or TikTok
“Opportunities. Like, this don't come through DMs on Instagram. They don't come through TikTok. It's how I met Sam Parr. Like, it's how I've met people who've become really influential in my life. Like, that doesn't happen on Instagram.”
Insight
Amoruso: Scarcity mechanisms drive habit formation across social media and retail
“I think scarcity is a really big mechanism, which Be Real is capitalizing on. I think with TikTok, even the trends are a bit of a scarcity model in terms of like, you need to get on this now. It's going to become outdated. Same with fashion, same with news. So…”
Prediction Held up
Lieberman: Food influencers will evolve into digital restaurants via ghost kitchens
“I think where food influence, so anyone on Instagram, TikTok, et cetera, who is building personality and doing so in the food category, where it is going is I think these people are going to become restaurants in their own right.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Alex Lieberman's video views dropped from 700k peak to under 4k recently
“My last three, 62nd startups got 2000 views, a thousand views, and 3800 views. And just for context, like my most watched 62nd startup had 600,000 or 700,000 views.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Alex Lieberman gained 100,000 of his 107,000 TikTok followers from four videos
“Of the 105 or 107,000 followers I have on TikTok. I think a 100,000 of them came from three or four videos.”