Jan 10, 2023 · 54m · founders-journal
Our 2023 Predictions, from AI to the Creator Economy
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In this 2023 kickoff episode of The Crazy Ones, Alex Lieberman and Jesse Pujji break down high-conviction predictions across generative AI, tech macroeconomics, and the creator economy before conducting a detailed operational teardown of Alex's new physical product startup, The Plunge.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Alex holds 58.8% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Alex as informed peer 4.7 Guest teaching 4.4 Guest disagreement 1.9 Alex pushing back 1.4
speaking balance: gold is Alex, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 29:48 Jesse forcefully dismisses the Disney TikTok acquisition thesis
When Alex presents Adam Ryan's prediction that Disney could buy TikTok, Jesse immediately shuts it down with 'No chance,' arguing Disney avoids uncurated UGC.
Hardest push from Alex ▶ 43:38 Alex challenges Jesse's advice to risk upfront manufacturing spendWhen Jesse questions why Alex is using pre-orders rather than simply buying inventory upfront, Alex directly counters by asking whether Jesse would casually risk losing a hundred thousand dollars.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 45:15 Jesse breaks down Facebook pixel seasoning and APM mathJesse educates Alex on early stage paid customer acquisition, explaining the mechanics of seasoning pixels with static creative and calculating conversion metrics per 10k impressions.
Alex holds their own ▶ 22:15 Alex articulates the limitations of venture-backed creator startupsAlex displays deep domain expertise in digital media by dissecting why most creator economy startups fail to achieve venture outcomes unless they operate as core utility tollbooths like social platforms.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Alex as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Alex pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Welcome to 2023: Show Evolution and Sophia's Next Chapter | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Alex handles housekeeping, explaining show format changes for 2023 and announcing Sophia Amoruso's transition away from regular co-hosting. The tone is entirely friendly, celebratory, and collegial. | |
| The Purpose of Forecasting and AI Integration Across Businesses | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Jesse shares practical ways his portfolio companies are already leveraging AI tools like ChatGPT and Pebblely for product photography. Alex connects this to his own struggles setting up product imagery for his new venture. | |
| Macroeconomic Headwinds, Capital Repricing, and Tech Layoffs | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Alex outlines his macroeconomic thesis for 2023, citing inflation figures, capital repricing, and Scott Galloway's tech layoff calculus. Jesse agrees and emphasizes how overbuilding during the pandemic boom induced corporate greed. | |
| High-Conviction Forecast: The Dominance of Short-Form and Vertical Media | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Alex predicts the continued exponential rise of short-form vertical video, highlighting offshore editing agencies. Jesse expands on this thesis using his company Kahani, arguing that vertical media will dominate standard web commerce. | |
| High-Conviction Forecast: The Retraction of Cohort-Based Courses | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | Alex forecasts a sharp decline in cohort-based courses due to lack of scheduling flexibility and oversupply. Jesse frames the topic through a longer 10-year lens regarding the unbundling and credentialing of university education. | |
| Creator Economy Realities: Funding Pullbacks and Infrastructure Scale | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3 | Jesse presents Hollywood rights management as an analogy for creator economy back-office infrastructure. Alex pushes back by arguing most creator tools lack venture-scale economics outside of transaction tollbooths and top-tier creator consumer brands. | |
| Wildcard Predictions and Reflections on 1923 Projections | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | The hosts trade wildcard predictions on pickleball and a potential TikTok sale. Jesse vigorously dismisses the idea of Disney acquiring TikTok, arguing TikTok is contrary to Disney's curated IP model while Microsoft is the natural buyer. | |
| The Plunge Genesis: Pitching a Backyard Plunger-Throwing Game | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | Alex pitches his new backyard game venture, The Plunge, inspired by viral Dude Perfect videos and the rise of axe-throwing venues. Jesse enforces a rapid-fire startup pitch structure to get down to the core business model. | |
| Business CrossFit: Unit Economics and Paid Acquisition for The Plunge | 4 | 7 | 3 | 2 | Jesse runs a deep operational teardown of The Plunge, schooling Alex on ad testing, 'seasoning the pixel' on Facebook, and calculating acquisitions per ten thousand impressions. Alex defends his cautious pre-order staging strategy to avoid tying up capital in inventory. |
Statements from this episode (23)
Pujji: The Value of Forecasting Lies in Mental Preparation, Not Accuracy
“The predictions are going to be wrong for sure. We're going to get them wrong, but the thought process and the cycling around in your brain and talking through with your teams, that's where the value comes in. Cause then when you do spot something or something…”
Lieberman: In 2023 Businesses Will Underperform, Valuations Drop, and Layoffs Continue
“So I just think overall, businesses are not going to perform as well in twenty-twenty-three. Consumers are going to be buying less stuff. Valuations are going to be repriced for higher interest rates. More layoffs are going to continue, I think, across the boa…”
Pujji: Tech Layoffs Are a Direct Result of Boom-Cycle Greed
“Layoffs are a function of greed, and there was a moment where people were just overbuilding a lot, and that's what leads to layoffs, and that's what leads to a lot of this stuff.”
Pujji: Founders who claim universal knowledge lose credibility immediately
“By the way, that's one of my signs of like a mature, self-aware entrepreneur. Is when, like, a person says to me, like, I know this really well, so I'm gonna, but these things, like, I have no clue. And then someone, like, has the same level of knowledge on ev…”
Pujji: Vertical media will become the dominant internet format in 2023
“I think I predict if we're right about Kahani that sometime this year, it's going to become a must have thing that your e-com site has tons of vertical media integrated into it to have the right rich experience that a user demands. But I think it's going to ha…”
Lieberman: Cohort-based courses will see declining interest in 2023
“And so I just think cohort based courses, we're going to hear a lot less talk about them in 2023.”
Pujji: Education Outside Top 100 Universities Will Be Reimagined by 2033
“So in 10 years, I think universities and the entire EDU system, other than maybe the top hundred universities, is going to be pretty reimagined.”
Pujji: Short-term creator shakeout before long-term workforce explosion
“I'd say in the short term, there will be a shakeout in the creator economy but again, in the long term, I think that category of people and workers is going to continue to kind of grow and explode.”
Lieberman: Creator economy venture funding will dry up in 2023
“Creator economy, economy funding is going to dry up this year.”
Lieberman: Very few creator economy businesses have venture scale upside
“There are lots of businesses to build in the creator economy. Still, there are not a lot of businesses that are what I would call venture scale creator Economy businesses right now.”
Lieberman: MrBeast's Feastables generates $1M a month in Walmart alone
“Businesses that are built with the Mr. Beast of the world, where Feastables is doing, you know, A million dollars a month in just Walmart businesses like that.”
Pujji: Creator economy will become increasingly verticalized and specialized
“I think the creator economy ultimately is going to be much more verticalized. It's going to be, the creators are going to get bigger. The verticals are going to get more pronounced.”
Lieberman: Musk will step down as Twitter CEO by end of 2023
“Elon will no longer be the CEO of Twitter by the end of 20, 23, but Twitter as a platform will be thriving.”
Pujji: TikTok is the exact asset Microsoft has wanted for two decades
“Microsoft, on the other hand, this is the asset they've been waiting for like two decades.”
Lieberman: A Berkshire Hathaway-Style Holding Company for Creators Will Emerge
“So one thesis that I've had for a long time, going back to our creator conversation, is that I believe that there's going to be, like, a Berkshire Hathaway for creator businesses, and what I mean by that is I think that There's going to be someone who sits at …”
Lieberman: Validating New Game 'The Plunge' Via Social-Driven Pre-Orders
“My goal is to launch this business for pre-orders in the next few weeks, and use short-form social content of people playing the game, put it on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and any other short-form platform to drive demand for the product. If I hit enough pre-o…”
Lieberman: Landed unit cost for The Plunge from China is $68
“As of right now, cost, if I wanted to get it to Jesse Poogee's house from China, so the whole process to get it to you is 68 dollars.”
Pujji: Ramping Facebook ad spend too quickly wastes budget before pixel seasons
“If you spend too much money too fast on Facebook, you actually, their signal is not dialed in yet. And so you waste your money and you don't actually figure out demand.”
Lieberman: Spent $12,000 developing The Plunge, with $11,500 on R&D
“I've spent 12,000 dollars on this game so far, and 11,500 was on R&D, and the remaining 500 was on, like, materials, like, stuff I got for the game from Home Depot”