why aren't all 23 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baszucki: Roblox believes it will achieve photorealism
“We believe we're gonna get to photoreal.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baszucki: Roblox will develop the best AI safety tech across text and voice
“Like I believe we will end up with the best AI tech for text, for voice, maybe for video, doing a wide range of safety things, either monitoring for critical harms, Flagging, adjusting, all of that.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2029
Baszucki: Money flowing to Roblox creators will increase despite AI concerns
“The thing we've said is we believe that money flowing to creators is going to increase, not decrease”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Older people will eventually attend church and work on Roblox
“Someday older people are going to go to church on the platform. Older people are going to work together on the platform. Older people are going to do other things.”
Assertion Supported
Roblox's global infrastructure costs less than one cent per user hourly
“Like all of Roblox runs for less than a penny an hour. For every person around the world.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI acceleration will turn Roblox game creation into mass-market consumption
“And I would say the good news is that vision may actually return, because I do think over time with AI acceleration, And all of the things we're working on, just like maybe in the very early days of video or YouTube was mostly consumptive. There was a little b…”
Assertion Supported
Roblox never burned through more than its initial $10 million in capital
“If we raised a secondary round, we might put some padding in there, but we actually never dipped below that initial ten million.”
Assertion Partly supported
Baszucki: Roblox implemented age verification independently, not due to legal mandates
“Age check. We made the call on our own. It's not because of laws or anything like that”
Assertion Partly supported
Roblox users spend over 13 billion hours on the platform monthly
“Thirteen billion plus a month.”
Assertion Supported
Roblox creators earn over $1 billion annually through platform payouts
“Devex is well over a billion bucks a year, you know, that's the amount.”
Assertion Supported
Baszucki: Second Life's contiguous world model created severe scaling limits
“Second Life's architecture was contiguous earth kind of thing, which had some issues around scaling, because in a contiguous earth type situation, which is just the way the real world makes, there's only one copy of that roller coaster, and when 30 people want…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Baszucki: Roblox shares all discovery boosting signals with platform creators
“One of the things that Roblox Creators like is we share all of the signals of what's boosting something. It's almost as if we were YouTube or TikTok or real saying, here's all the factors that, you know, bring you up here.”
Assertion Supported
Baszucki: Roblox's first product was a failed single-player puzzle builder
“There was actually an original product and that was an incredible failure. So, and the original product that was the incredible failure was arguably us knowing, we intuitively knew what the viral product would be. We knew the viral product would be online in t…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Roblox's entire social graph traces back to 1,500 initial Google ad users
“If we were able to, like, reverse engineer the whole social graph tree all the way back to the starting of Roblox, we'd probably see a one month period, you know, times 50 users, times 30, probably see 1500 users that were saw some ad, like an online building …”
Assertion Partly supported
Baszucki: Roblox operates 40 data centers and hundreds of thousands of computers
“There is a mini cloud infrastructure company running with 40 data centers and hundreds of thousands of computers.”
Assertion Supported
Baszucki: Roblox modeled Builders Club after Club Penguin's subscription
“At that time, Club Penguin had a club membership.
Can we just charge people five bucks a month for something?
So we worked on that for a while, and so we had this thing called Builder's Club.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Baszucki: Roblox has roughly one to two million game creators
“I don't know if we give out our latest Roblox Studio numbers, but it's definitely a lot of people, but it's not ten million. Small percentage. It's one or two million.”
Assertion Contradicted
Bruno Mars's Roblox event drew 20 million users across sharded instances
“So in Bruno Mars, we're talking twenty million people but those are sharded amongst copies of experiences.”
Assertion Supported
Baszucki: Roblox used early AI BERT models for safety for years
“So at Roblox for many, many years, we were pushing very early AI BERT models, primitive type models to drive safety.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Roblox's 1,000th-ranked creator is growing bookings faster than its top creator
“The growth rate in bookings per year for creator number a thousand ranked by how much they're making, they are growing faster than creator number one.”
Assertion Supported
Baszucki: Roblox has never bought up games from platform creators
“We never have.”
Assertion Supported
Baszucki: Early economy hack forced Roblox to shut down for two days
“Other near death or rough things is our economy got hacked once. So we had to like shut down the whole economy for Two days, literally.”
Assertion Contradicted
Baszucki: Knowledge Revolution got very far without outside funding
“Knowledge Revolution got very far without raising any money.”