why aren't all 24 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Spiegel: Meta needed Luxottica partnership to camouflage its unpopular brand
“I think Meta needed to partner with Luxottica because the Meta brand, I think, is not something that people want to put anywhere near their face. So I think I think that Meta really needed it. I think what's, what's challenging for Luxottica is they took like …”
Opinion
Spiegel: AI gives Snap effectively infinite engineering resources against monopolies
“And so it's been hard to see a path forward. For Snap up against these giants without AI tools. And now with AI tools, you're like, wow, we can basically have an infinite number of engineering resources.”
Insight
Spiegel: There is no defensible moat in software alone
“You know, you look at the last 15 years, we learned very, very early on that there's no moat in software, which was an incredibly powerful lesson, right? All of our ideas, the things that we invent, people just try to copy right away, and it's easy to do that …”
Assertion Supported
Spiegel: Snap funded 12 years of smart glasses R&D without VC patience
“What's very unique about Snapchat is we've been able to do that now for, you know, we've invested in glasses for 12 years. We've been able to very consistently invest in a way that no VC would ever in a million years support.”
Opinion
Spiegel: Holding a Smartphone Screen Is Not the Future of Computing
“It was obvious to me that, you know, if you looked at the evolution of computing, that like holding this tiny little screen in your hands was not the future of computers. Like it makes absolutely no sense, especially for humans that want to like live and work …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Spiegel: Snap's core product and design team is only 8 to 12 people
“If you look at the core, like the core product and design team, that's a very small team. I mean, I think it's like currently like nine people. It's usually fluctuates between like eight and 12 people at any given time.”
Insight
Spiegel: AI tools allow Snap designers to ship code directly
“Well, now that's happening incredibly quickly because designers can ship code with, you know, all these new AI tools. The whole world of design is changing, I think, very rapidly, because now, you know, many of our designers are just empowered. If they've got …”
Opinion
Spiegel: Spending eight hours a day on computers is a societal disaster
“The biggest problem that I see today is people spending seven or eight hours a day on their computer and spending their life operating a computer. I think that is like a disaster for our society. And I think like we have to change that. And if we don't, like w…”
Disclosure
Spiegel: Early Snap investors allowed the founders to sell $10M in stock
“They allowed Bobby and I to both sell ten million bucks of stock very early on.”
Disclosure
Spiegel: Snap plans to incubate standalone apps using Snapchat's billion-user distribution
“Inside of Snapchat today, and in our design team, we're thinking a lot about what types of new apps and services, internet services... A separate app from Snapchat. But we can use Snapchat as a launch pad for these new services because it reaches almost a bill…”
Insight
Spiegel: The market for standalone camera glasses is very small
“As part of starting to work on camera glasses, not only do we realize, first of all, that the market for camera glasses is very small. Right. That ultimately your phone is very good for taking photos, even if you're on a jet ski, or even if you're rock climbin…”
Assertion Supported
Spiegel: Snap manufactures core AR components in its own US and UK facilities
“Yeah, people you know, I think would be stunned to learn that we manufacture core components in the U.S. And the U.K., right, in our own facilities, which allow us to do this really advanced R&D to push the boundaries of what's, you know, what's possible with …”
Disclosure
Spiegel: Snap is launching first consumer AR glasses later this year
“And then later this year, you know, we're launching the first consumer version, which will be a big step for us.”
Disclosure
Spiegel: Snap acquired calendar app Saturn
“There's an app called Saturn, which we acquired, which is a totally new way to think of calendaring.”
Opinion
Spiegel: Art school grads fit Snap's design culture best due to rapid iteration
“The closest we come are probably folks out of art school because they're used to such a rapid iteration process and are used to making things in extremely high volume. And so they are a good fit for The design culture at Snap, which is really about very rapid …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Spiegel: AI will completely transform Snap's operations within 18 months
“I mean, in the last three months, there's been profound change, but to imagine, I mean, 18 months from now, The way that Snap operates will be completely different than the way it operated last year.”
Assertion Supported
Spiegel: Snapchat subscription business reaches $1B revenue run rate
“We're doing a bit like a, yeah, like a billion run rate growing 60% year over year.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Spiegel: Snap's design team is completely flat with identical titles
“The design team is actually flat, right? Everyone's got the same title, like that kind of thing.”
Disclosure
Spiegel: Monday mornings start with a 2.5-hour Spectacles risk review
“Yeah, so, so my Monday morning, for example, is like two to two and a half hours in the specs business going through the risks and dependencies. Red, yellow, you know, red, orange, yellow, green. What are we doing to solve it? Right? And what progress are we m…”
Assertion Partly supported
Spiegel: Snap generates nearly $7B in annual revenue
“Snapchat's almost a seven billion dollar revenue. Business, right?”
Disclosure
Spiegel: Snap adopted Walmart's 'In It to Win It' problem-surfacing format
“I think one of the things that's really, I stole this from Walmart, which I thought was great. They have a Friday meeting called in it to win it. They have their leaders from across the company, not just like super senior leaders, but leaders from across the c…”
Disclosure
Spiegel: Developing Spectacles hardware is probably my last company
“I think Spex is probably my last company, I would guess.”
Assertion Supported
Spiegel: Hundreds of millions of people use Snap AR daily
“Hundreds of millions of people are now using AR, like every day.”
Assertion Supported
Spiegel: Snap grew from 100 to over 1,000 employees in 18 months
“There were periods of time when we went from, you know, having a hundred people to over a thousand people in like 18 months, right?”