The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 25 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Glyman: OpenAI and Anthropic will pass $300B combined revenue in a year
“And if you play out what they and OpenAI, just the two labs, are on track to do in revenue and call it a year's time I think it'd be reasonably conservative at this point to say they're gonna pass more than three hundred billion dollars a year in revenue, whic…”
Altman: OpenAI Killed Sora to Reallocate Compute to Codex
“But last year, for example, we killed Sora. Which was, you know, good product, and fun, and cool, but used a lot of compute, and not as important as Codex, where we put the compute.”
Altman: OpenAI would not have been possible without YC's ecosystem changes
“So if we, you know, ran the clock back to 2000 four and then projected technology forward to 2016 but not anything else about the shape of
Startup ecosystem, what it meant to be an entrepreneur, how capital flowed, all of the, you know, who got to run companie…”
Altman: OpenAI Should Be a Platform Company Rather Than a Product Company
“Actually, I think we should be more of a platform company than a product company.”
Altman: Public deployment and customer feedback is how you make AI safe
“The way you do things is to put things out into the world, get feedback from real customers, see where they break, see where they don't break. That is the way you make a good product. That is also the way you make a safe product.”
Altman: AI scientific discovery will be more important than task automation
“Like, I think this is, I think this will be one of the most important areas, even more important than automation of other tasks that AI can do just to help us understand more things.”
Altman: OpenAI Will Be Best Across the Entire Cost-Performance Curve
“At every point on the cost curve, cost performance curve, we will be the best.”
Altman: OpenAI faced widespread intellectual criticism over AGI and LLM focus
“I mean, we just got, you know, hammered in the, by like all of the intellectual giants of the field for saying that we were going after AGI. And then when we started really focusing on large language models, we got hammered again saying this is completely ridi…”
Altman: OpenAI Killed Its Web Browser 'Atlas' to Refocus Talent
“We killed our web browser called Atlas, which, again, I think was a great product, it was the best web browser, but not as important for us to focus on as somewhere else we could put that talent.”
Altman: I was wrong to expect immediate software disruption after GPT-4
“When we got to GBT four, which was back in 20, 23, I think that very quickly after that, there was going to be much more disruption in software business being up for grabs right, right away than turned out to be. And the thing that I think I was wrong about a …”
Altman: Running a company is much harder than investing
“Having done both, I think I can say it's like much, much, much harder to run a company than being an investor.”
Altman: External demos for eminent guests motivate researchers better than fake deadlines
“We also learned the incredible power of external demos for like an eminent person that the researchers really wanted to impress. And then we learned a bunch of things that like didn't work like fake deadlines.”
Altman: ChatGPT has reached one billion users in under four years
“ChatGPT has only been out, like, less than four years. A billion people use it.”
Altman: AI products have neglected context in favor of raw intelligence
“So I think we've focused Correctly. So much on model intelligence that on the product side, we have not yet thought enough about what it means to give a model more context than any person could have and help advise that person on, on their big decisions.”
Altman: OpenAI launched ChatGPT knowing it was early and embarrassing
“I don't even think I asked him before we launched HGPT, like, Hey, do you think we should launch this thing? But I knew what he would say. I knew it was still early. I knew it was still embarrassing. And I knew the right thing was to like, get it out and get i…”
Lütke: Top earners in ML labs like OpenAI are individual contributors
“The best paid people in, Many companies are now individual contributors at this point in in history especially in machine learning, like at least in the, at the machine learning labs, like OpenAI.”
Altman: DeepMind was one of only a few AGI efforts when OpenAI launched
“In late, late, when we were starting OpenAI, there were very few AGI efforts in the world. There was DeepMind, one or two others that I can think of. It was like a very non-consensus thing to do.”
Altman: Creating and efficiently serving smart models makes everything else follow
“The most important thing that we can do is to create smart models and to be able to run them efficiently and abundantly for a lot of people. If we can get that right, I believe that everything else will follow.”
Altman: Working as an investor first gives founders crucial decision pattern matching
“You get this unbelievable set of learnings and pattern matching if you really study and watch companies as an investor that has been super helpful to me running openai but it's like it's the opposite normal direction so it's just like a very rare thing and i s…”
Altman: OpenAI's GPT series originated from its unsupervised sentiment neuron paper
“You know, what started as the unsupervised sentiment neuron paper turned into GPT-ONE and then eventually GPT-whatever.”
Altman: Tobi Lütke gives the best cutting-edge AI feedback among large company CEOs
“He is the only person at the intersection of like CEO of a large company and extremely accurate detailed on the cutting edge feedback.”
Devin dynamically routes tasks across OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and internal models
“Devin, rather than being pegged to one model and saying, oh, we're only going to serve you GPT for this, or we're only going to serve you OPFIS for this, Devin can use any of the different models it has in its arsenal, which include all of these models from An…”
Altman: OpenAI used internal leaderboards to simulate missing customer signals
“One of the things that worked actually is during the Dota two days when we were trying to use RL to beat this video, beat people at a video game, we put up like a leaderboard and people could just see how different ideas were performing and what was You know, …”