The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Scott Wu predicts humans will soon stop interacting directly with code
“We're not always, I mean, we're not gonna be interacting with code for that much longer, you know, or programs might not be the right, like level of abstraction, but I think what is always true probably is that it will be the human computer interface.”
Scott Wu Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 10:23 The Future of Software & AI | Cognition’s Scott Wu
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Scott Wu confirms initial Devin launch videos were real, unstaged runs
“All of those like demos that we showed, you know, in, in, in our launch announcement were like actual runs of Devon that we had done ourselves and like run into and been like, holy shit, this is insane.”
Scott Wu Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 33:51 The Future of Software & AI | Cognition’s Scott Wu
Assertion Supported
Devin scored 13 percent on SWE-bench against a 3 percent baseline
“At the time the best known was like Three or four percent or something like that, but obviously, yeah, 13% still means you fail, you know, 87% of the time.”
Scott Wu Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 34:56 The Future of Software & AI | Cognition’s Scott Wu
Disclosure
Devin dynamically routes tasks across OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and internal models
“Devin, rather than being pegged to one model and saying, oh, we're only going to serve you GPT for this, or we're only going to serve you OPFIS for this, Devin can use any of the different models it has in its arsenal, which include all of these models from An…”
Scott Wu Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 51:51 The Future of Software & AI | Cognition’s Scott Wu
Disclosure
Cognition ignores individual hobbyists to focus on production engineering teams
“And so, so we don't focus at all on like, you know, individual hobbyists who are just like trying to make a cool thing or something like that. We focus on like, Real teams who are building real products that they want people to use and getting output out of th…”
Scott Wu Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 42:24 The Future of Software & AI | Cognition’s Scott Wu
Assertion Supported
Cognition's first commercial success was an enterprise migration for Nubank
“Our first success ended up being with a company called Nubank, biggest bank in Brazil, you know, by market cap at the time, and the use case was like one of these big migrations, and we had a kind of a custom Devon that was like extremely, extremely optimized …”
Scott Wu Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 40:26 The Future of Software & AI | Cognition’s Scott Wu
Assertion Not checkable as stated
The first automated task Devin successfully performed was setting up MongoDB
“The first task that Devon did was it like set up MongoDB for us.”
Scott Wu Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 32:20 The Future of Software & AI | Cognition’s Scott Wu
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