why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Partly held up
Ricks: Machine-designed drugs haven't reached clinical trials yet, but are coming
“I don't know of one that's come through the machine driven discovery process, which is really machine plus human that's made it to the clinic yet, but they're coming.”
Prediction Partly held up
Ricks: Taltz plus Zepbound trial is certain to boost psoriasis efficacy
“So we're doing a study with our psoriasis drug, Taltz, and ZepBound. That will read out this fall. And I'm certain we'll show a boost in efficacy with the weight loss.”
Prediction Held up
Ricks: Eli Lilly's chronic knee pain study is going to work
“We have a study reading out toward the end of this year in chronic knee pain. It's going to work.”
Prediction Held up
Waymo Co-CEO: Gen-6 Custom Robotaxi Is Launching in 2026
“It's, you know, we're not, it's not open to the, you know, the public yet. But, you know, I took a ride in it the other day, fully autonomously, and that's coming this year.”
Prediction Held up
Ricks: Current GLP-1 drug pricing will fall amid competition and pressure
“And the current pricing isn't going to stay. Let's be honest. There'll be more competition. The government wants to lower our prices.”
Prediction Held up
Staniszewski: Fused voice-LLM models will reach hundreds of billions of parameters
“The thing that's, you know, like I hesitated on the question is, in a cascaded approach, you probably will not see like dramatic size changes. You inherently want the models to be quick and reliable. You want to orchestrate them in a smart way. In a fused appr…”
Prediction Held up
Dolgov: Waymo Gen-6 Driver Will Expand to Hyundai Ioniq in 2026
“And then we're gonna put the six generation Waymo driver on other vehicle forms like the Hyundai Ionic that's coming, you know later in the year.”
Prediction Held up
Sundheim: Neobanks like Nubank and Revolut will increasingly take market share
“Iterate on product faster, have better engineers, and I think that those banks are going to increasingly take market share.”