The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Andreessen: AI job displacement will be slowed dramatically by licensing and unions
“The employment shifts everybody's worried about are actually not going to happen at anywhere near the velocity people think because it's like, you know, a significant, significant percentage of jobs in the US literally are, you know, licensed or unionized or c…”
Andreessen: US dockworker agreements paid one non-working person per active worker
“One of the things that we, that was discovered during that process that I didn't know is that in prior union agreements with the dock workers, they already had a one-to-one ratio of people sitting at home doing nothing to every productive dock worker as a cons…”
Andreessen: Global AI development is consolidating into just two geographic hubs
“You see this in data, actually, already. It's AI was reconsolidating. You know, to basically two places on Earth and only one in the West.”
Andreessen: The 2000 dot-com crash was almost entirely a telecom credit bubble
“It was almost entirely a telco bubble, and it was almost entirely a telco crash, and you know that for two reasons. One is the sheer amounts of money involved were so much greater on the telco side, and then the other is telco is where the debt came in. To get…”
Andreessen: Most AI computation will run on smaller, open-source models
“My guess is we, they're gonna live in a world in which most aggregate AI is gonna be executed probably on smaller, smaller form factors,
And probably most of that is going to be open source.”
Andreessen: Tokenizing real-world assets will work incredibly well beyond dollars
“The idea was a crypto token wrapping a real world asset. So that was one of the, part of the original thinking on all this stuff. It's worked incredibly well for dollars. I believe that will work incredibly well for many other kinds of assets.”
Andreessen: Silicon Valley's true roots originated with 1920s defense tech
“The typical Silicon Valley history goes back to like the 19 fifties with HP and the 19 sixties with the chip companies. But the real history, I, he, I think he makes a very compelling case. The real history was actually defense tech startups in the, like, 19 t…”
Andreessen: The 1999 Total Internet Market Was at Most 50 Million People
“The total market size in like, 1999 for internet anything was like fifty million people total max maybe.”
Andreessen: Employees of Musk and Jobs consistently report doing their best work
“The people who work for Elon and the people who work for Steve, they often report after the fact that they did the best work of their lives. And they often report that, you know, they could have had difficult, you know, Interactions along the way, or they coul…”