The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

3statements match

0resolved → 3open claims → 0supported → 0contradicted →

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2030

Handmer: Desalinated water can be produced for $99 per acre-foot

“So I believe that it should be possible to produce water, desalinated water, for 99 bucks an acre foot, which would be transformational, right?”

Casey Handmer Oct 28, 2025 ▶ 58:56 Casey Handmer of Terraform Industries on solar maximalism, hard tech, and reclaiming the Salton Sea

Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2030

Handmer predicts China will beat the United States to the Moon

“Relax the outer space treaty in 2017 with the outer space, so the Artemis Accords, so we can go and kind of make a land grab on the moon, and then it turns out China's going to get there first.”

Casey Handmer Oct 28, 2025 ▶ 1:14:22 Casey Handmer of Terraform Industries on solar maximalism, hard tech, and reclaiming the Salton Sea

Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2030

Vogt: Next $100B company founded in 2025-2026 will have under 100 people

“I think the next hundred billion dollar company that's created, you know, in 25, 26 will be under a hundred people.”

Kyle Vogt Jun 25, 2025 ▶ 21:57 A Cheeky Pint with Kyle Vogt, cofounder of Twitch, Cruise, and The Bot Company

The Ledger

Turn any episode into a week of clips.