supercuts / didnt-hold-up
Didn’t hold up
The most confident predictions the public record went against, highest certainty first. · 20 clips, 4 minutes, hands free.
0:00 / 0:12exact quote · 12.8s
1/20Fisher (2020): At 5% interest rates, every real estate investor goes bankrupt
Adam Fisher · 2020Didn’t hold upfull source →
1Fisher (2020): At 5% interest rates, every real estate investor goes bankruptAdam Fisher · 13sDidn’t hold up
2Papic: There is basically no way the US will not get an Iran dealMarko Papic · 3sDidn’t hold up
3Novogratz: Bitcoin and major currencies will trade on the same broker desks within five yearsMike Novogratz · 12sDidn’t hold up
4Geremia: ESG will cease to be an investment term within three yearsCarol Geremia · 12sDidn’t hold up
5Citrone: US Core Inflation Has Peaked but Won't Fall Fast EnoughRob Citrone · 22sDidn’t hold up
6Russo: Google's top-line revenue growth will exceed 20% over coming yearsTom Russo · 1sDidn’t hold up
7Cembalest: US municipal restructurings will rise continuously without federal interventionMichael Cembalest · 16sDidn’t hold up
8U.S. entitlement to discretionary spending ratio will hit 5:1 within a decadeMichael Cembalest · 22sDidn’t hold up
9Wolfe: Varda Will Launch First Space Manufacturing Mission in Late 2022Josh Wolfe · 9sDidn’t hold up
10Peters: US 2021 Budget Deficit Will Reach 15% to 20%Eric Peters · 12sDidn’t hold up
11McDaniel predicts Scott Malpass will never leave Notre DameKip McDaniel · 5sDidn’t hold up
12Hutchinson: Arctos will add another 20 sports teams to its portfolioChad Hutchinson · 3sDidn’t hold up
13Masters: China's savings rate will drop rapidly as demographics mirror JapanSeth Masters · 22sDidn’t hold up
14Dixon: Web3 payouts will pass Web2 payouts in next couple yearsChris Dixon · 5sDidn’t hold up
15Papic: S&P 500 could easily reach 7,000 by 2024Marko Papic · 4sDidn’t hold up
16Sacca: GPT-5 will train in 2023 and be 6-8x better than GPT-4Chris Sacca · 7sDidn’t hold up
17Lenehan: China will very shortly become the world's largest economyTom Lenehan · 10sDidn’t hold up
18Visser: Inflation will remain significantly higher than bond yields through 2026Jordi Visser · 16sDidn’t hold up
19Jain: Helium will have more access points than any telecom by 2022Tushar Jain · 14sDidn’t hold up
20Rieder projects that the US economy will achieve 8% GDP in 2021Rick Rieder · 4sDidn’t hold up