The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Daniel: Multi-managers like Citadel are new shadow banks relying on Fed bailouts
“So I really, truly believe that they are the new shadow banking system, that whenever something goes awry, there's a reason why Millennium hired who they hired, why Citadel hired who they hired, to make sure that when the calamity occurs, they call the Fed for…”
Daniel: Multi-manager volatility targeting dictates modern daily market flows
“The lower the volatility in the world, the more capital they're deploying. And that was a very interesting concept for us. A concept to that was an eye opening experience. And more importantly, probably now it is dictating a lot of the flows and the performanc…”
Daniel: High leverage forces multi-manager hedge funds into short-term momentum trading
“If you work at these shops, it took me a while to figure out, but almost all of them
Are 90, 95% of the time long short-term momentum, which is in English is long something that is working right now.
And when you think why they have to do it, if you're so leve…”
Daniel: Energy was one of our career's greatest contrarian value trades
“One of, probably, I would say the biggest for us was when Exxon got kicked out of the Dow for Salesforce.com, Us schmucks, everybody else in the world goes and buys Salesforce.com because it's going to be in relative indices and the like. We go, let's take a l…”
Daniel: Private equity faces valuation issues from mismarked assets
“I just feel like a lot of things are mismarked, which probably gets back to while I have a tremendous affinity for the private equity model, I think they have some issues and challenges associated with the assets they've deployed over the last two years.”
Daniel: US sovereign debt is causing significant market crowding out
“And as a result, we've built up tremendous amounts of sovereign debt, which were, I guess, manageable when rates were at zero. Well, rates are not at zero anymore. So as a result, there's a tremendous crowding out factor that is occurring right now.”
Daniel: Tech critics hypocritically begged for SVB uninsured deposit bailouts
“But the people who got bailed out of uninsured deposits, and the ones who complained about the entire banking system in and of itself, and then were begging, and they got bailed out, that was a pet peeve of mine that drove me insane.”
Daniel: FrontPoint's subprime trades would get PMs fired at modern Citadel
“Because I can imagine if someone took what we were doing way back when and put it in a Millennium slash Citadel native IDEO model, we'd probably be fired on the spot.”
Daniel: Few investors tracked monthly subprime securitization data in the late 1990s
“At that time, the primary funding source for all things subprime were securitization, and very few, if any, were actually looking at the data on a monthly basis at that point in time.”
Daniel: Major asset managers had zero energy stocks in top 50 holdings
“We took all the large asset management complexes. I think Wellington. Wellington, Fidelity, Neuberger, you name, Capri, you name them, and say, okay, let's figure out where their largest energy exposure is and what number it is in their portfolio. They're taki…”
Vincent Daniel: Uranium and Nuclear Remain Core Investment Themes for Seawolf
“One of our favorite themes has been and continues to be uranium and nuclear.”
Daniel: Regulated banks cannot make unsecured corporate loans due to risk weights
“Regulated banks do not want to make an unsecured loan to corporate borrowers. They're not allowed to, for the most part. The risk weights are too high.”
Daniel: Brazil Feeds and Fuels Itself With Cheap Equities and Fiscal Balance
“It's a country that can feed itself and fuel itself and has enough of those two commodities to export. They run a fiscal neutral position and the stocks are really cheap.”
Daniel: Seawolf's Strategy Cannot Scale to Citadel or Millennium's Size
“Ted, I doubt it, because I don't think what we're doing here is infinitely scalable. Whereas I look at what a Millennium and Citadel have done, and I get the scale that they run at, and I think it's amazing. But the way we like to run money, we can't be big, b…”
Daniel: Jeremy Strong's intense preparation made it obvious he'd be a star
“We knew from Jump, he was gonna be a star, because he took so much care and pride and work in being me, to the point where he would call me at night, 1010, 30. He goes, I have to talk to you. And I was like, all right. He goes, I have a scene tomorrow. It's th…”