The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 23 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Millennium's multi-decade track record statistically disproves efficient markets
“It's in decades, not in single digit years with hundreds of different groups on board. And it would be impossible statistically to think that that's random at this point. Let's put it that way. They continue to do well.”
Kuhn holds 10% of his net worth in Kindred Biosciences stock
“Probably 10% of my net worth is in one stock, because I think it's that mispriced. A friend of mine is obsessed with it, and he has convinced me that it's expected value, probably one-fifth the true value of the company.”
Smarter US immigration policy could boost GDP growth by 3% annually
“If we had a smarter immigration policy, I think we could boost our GDP by another three percent a year. So if we're at four percent GDP now, I think we can get to seven.”
China lacks the culture and history to attract global talent
“But they don't have the right culture. They don't have the right history to do that. We do. We have this amazing advantage that we're not taking advantage of.”
Kuhn: Hedge funds correcting market mispricings is a pro-social activity
“They're trying to find mistakes in markets and correct them. And I think that's actually a pro-social idea.”
Kuhn predicts Kindred Biosciences will be acquired for over $500M
“I think the end game is some of the other drugs get developed. Mirataz continues to grow a market share, and somebody buys them for more than five hundred million, hopefully.”
Kuhn: Income sharing agreements create a superior education model with skin in the game
“And since these companies have skin in the game, To take something from our friend Nassim Taleb. If they're not adding value to the students, they don't get paid. If they take a person making 40,000 dollars a year and only make 40,000 dollars a year after thei…”
Kuhn: Immigration proposal raises $70B annually, funding asylum courts with 1%
“My proposal raises about seventy billion dollars a year and asking employers to pay fees for these visas for one percent of that. Seven hundred million, probably actually less than that, but let's just say one percent of the money that this proposal itself rai…”
Kuhn: Debates over tax law pale in comparison to immigration reform
“All the picayune debates we have about little differences in tax laws, et cetera, they pale in comparison to getting an immigration policy right. They're small. This is big.”
Tyler Cowen is the most influential living economist and public intellectual
“I think Tyler Cowen is the most influential living economist. I think he's maybe the most important public intellectual in America today.”
Kuhn: Salomon's Yield Book Was First to Calculate Option-Adjusted Spread
“The yield book. If you're a mortgage person from that era, this was like the first machine that could actually calculate an option adjusted spread.”
Kuhn: Beijing Students He Taught Generated Billions in Hedge Fund Alpha
“It's got to be in the billions, because I mean, my students have worked at all the name brand hedge funds, Students that I taught during that time have worked at all.”
Kuhn: Chinese University Admissions Rely Exclusively on Exam Scores
“The scores are your scores, and not a lot of behind-the-scenes manipulation that'll allow you to get a student in. You're not going to have It's not going to be based on you're a great athlete. It's not going to be based on whether your parents can write a big…”
Kuhn: Launching a Hedge Fund Is Harder Post-2008 Than Ever
“One thing that I've told people, I think it's become more difficult to launch a hedge fund now than probably ever in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.”
Multi-manager platforms like Millennium have massive advantage in recruiting talent
“I think that means as of now, kind of the big market leader is in the big brands like the millenniums of the world have a pretty big edge because the person who wants to raise a hundred million dollar fund has a very difficult time doing that themselves, but M…”
Kuhn: New hedge fund managers cannot balance fundraising travel and trading performance
“I think, by the way, the biggest thing you'd be helping the new funds with is marketing and helping them tell their story because a new hedge fund manager, they have to have a great first year in terms of their performance and they have to raise money and ther…”
Animal drugs cost 1/100th to develop but retain 1/10th the value
“Animal drugs are only worth one-tenth what human drugs are worth. But they cost one 100th to develop.”
Kuhn: Good contrarian investors never rule out ideas by category
“You basically, you take in as many ideas as possible and you try very carefully not to dispose of ideas or to rule out things based on abstract categories. That's what makes for a good contrarian investor is you don't do that.”
Kuhn: Non-Citizens Facing US Immigration Challenges Lack Guaranteed Legal Counsel
“If you come here with an immigration challenge, if you're claiming asylum or what have you, because you're not a citizen, you're not guaranteed a lawyer.”
US remittances to Honduras outpace official foreign aid by over 10x
“So our official aid to Honduras is something around four hundred million dollars. Remittances are five or six billion.”
Kuhn: Major US Policy Changes Typically Happen in Presidents' Third Year
“So if you look at a lot of the major policy changes we've had in American history, happens in the third year of a first term of a president.”