The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 46 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Kleinman: Semi-liquid PE will fail to deliver a good client experience
“It's not going to give the client, i.e. The wealth client, a good experience in the long run.”
Kleinman: Asset management growth is constrained by origination, not capital
“The whole industry thinks in terms of capital formation. I just got to raise more capital and I'll deploy it. We flipped that on its head and said, no, the limiter of our growth is not capital. We've never had a situation where we've had good ideas and haven't…”
Kleinman: Asset management will stop segmenting by public versus private in 5-10 years
“And the way you cut the asset management industry in five or 10 years, I'm not sure is going to be based on public and private. It'll be based on other risk categories, but that's not a good definition of what's risky and what's not risky anymore. I think you'…”
Kleinman: Apollo Holds Lower Leverage and Fewer PIK Loans Than Competitors
“Our private equity portfolio is more defensive than most of our competitors. Our credit portfolio is for sure much higher rated, much less leverage, much less portfolio leverage. Our private lending portfolio has a fraction of the pick loans or other aggressiv…”
Kleinman: Private equity cannot scale like credit due to concentrated dealmaking
“There's only so much you can deploy in private equity. When you are making six or eight consequential decisions a year, there's only so much capital you can deploy on that basis. In the credit business, instead of buying a hundred million of this particular bo…”
Kleinman: Weak AI ROIs will weigh on markets and hit levered players
“If those ROIs don't come to pass, I don't think the whole system is going bankrupt, but that clearly will have a weighing effect on the markets. Certainly the biggest hyperscalers will be okay, but that cascades down to many, many players, some of whom have go…”
Kleinman: AI CapEx represents at least 2% of GDP growth
“That's representing at least a couple percent of GDP growth right now. That's driving massive investment in infrastructure and chip manufacturing and energy and all of these things.”
Kleinman: Apollo decided against launching semi-liquid private equity products
“We don't think it's a great product. So we have decided not to bring a semi-liquid private equity product. We have a variety of semi-liquid other products, but for private equity, we've made the decision, this isn't the right Product.”
Kleinman: Mutual Funds and ETFs Will Blend Private Assets into Products
“Traditional asset managers, i.e. Mutual funds, ETFs, they're gonna start injecting some amount of private assets blended into their products.”
Kleinman: Apollo was first to house private credit and PE together
“We were the first folks to come out of the GFC saying, well, we should have private credit business and a private equity business under the same roof.”
Kleinman: Asset-backed lending yields 200 bps premium over corporate credit
“It's a different business, and you're getting paid a premium for that type of specialization to the tune of a couple hundred basis points over the single A, double A, triple B corporate cost of capital that company is.”
Kleinman: Apollo bought Bridge Investment Group to expand real estate
“Obviously, with rates moving and cap rates moving, we, this year, went out and bought a fifty billion dollar real estate Asset manager called Bridge, and that's now an area we're starting to redirect and lean into because the relative pricing has repriced ther…”
Kleinman: Private equity firm mergers create more dissynergies than synergies
“The hardest type would be for one PE firm to go buy another PE firm. There is more dis synergies than there's actual synergies and something like that.”
Kleinman: The Market Has Not Had a Real Credit Cycle Since 2009
“We haven't had a real credit cycle since 2009.”
Kleinman: Apollo will roll out lower-leverage active equity strategies over next 5 years
“My only point is there are lots of ways that over the next five years, we will begin to bring other forms of equity to investors that isn't necessarily private equity, i.e. Levered equity buyout type capital that gives Premium to the longterm S&P with more sta…”
Kleinman: The best risk-return in a company is often debt, not equity
“It was a pretty novel concept that sometimes the best risk return in a company is not the equity. It could be the preferred. It could be the debt of a company. So be prepared to express that.”
Kleinman: Apollo's aggressive reputation could not scale with broader financial ambitions
“It was around that timeframe where it started becoming clear if we wanted to keep growing and keep being a bigger part of the financial system, that wasn't going to work. You can only do that for so much.”
Kleinman: Post-GFC alternatives industry completely ignored investment-grade credit
“We had to figure out how do we earn excess return in AA, in single A, in triple B, which no one in the alternatives industry was thinking about at the time. That left the space wide open for us to be able to go do that.”
Kleinman: Global CapEx Wave Forces Corporates to Seek Alternative Financing
“We're in a point in the CapEx cycle like we've never seen, certainly in my career, where companies have to spend so much money between the energy transition, the digital transformation, the re-globalization of moving assets around given the new world order. Co…”
Kleinman: Apollo Can Deploy Up to $20B in a Single Financing Deal
“And because of our scale, we're not showing up at 205 hundred million at a time. We can show up at three, five, 10, twenty billion dollars at a clip and speak for that level of capital to be able to do that with big IG counterparties.”
Kleinman: Apollo reaches $1T AUM with half from captive insurance capital
“We'll end the year pro forma for an acquisition right around a trillion dollars. Half of that, five hundred billion of that is our own captive insurance capital. One out of every two dollars we invest is for our own balance sheet, our own company.”
Kleinman: Apollo is the largest investor in every product offering
“We now are the largest investor in basically every product offering we offer out.”
Kleinman: Apollo will not raise fund capital without balance sheet participation
“But if we don't have a home on the Apollo balance sheet that thinks that's an interesting risk return, I'm not going to go out and raise that money because that may be right for the asset management business, but that's not right for what we're trying to do in…”
Kleinman: Apollo held virtually no high yield debt in late 2021
“If you looked at our entire footprint at the time, we had virtually no high yield on the Apollo platform.”
Kleinman: Apollo held zero real estate equity on insurance balance sheet before 2022
“On our insurance balance sheet, we had zero real estate equity at the time, which is atypical for a big IG balance sheet like that.”
Kleinman: Private equity outgrew its historical culture of extreme secrecy by 2020
“Private equity is a secret of business. Information was power. Information was kept very close to the vest. The less the outside world knew about what we did, the better. We had grown up in a very non-communicative way, both externally and internally. When pri…”
Kleinman: Apollo penalized hiding bad deals early, not making mistakes
“At Apollo, you historically didn't get in trouble for doing a bad deal. You got in trouble for not talking about it, 1218, 24 months before you hit the wall.”
Kleinman: Human capital businesses are the hardest type to buy in private equity
“I used to say in private equity, those are the hardest types of businesses to go buy. I'd much rather buy business where your physical plan, your fixed assets are just there. Businesses where your people walk out every night, and your assets are your people. T…”
Kleinman: Financial incentives fail without perceived multidirectional reciprocity across teams
“If all the benefit went from this direction to that direction, I don't care what the financial incentives are, people would throw their hands up and say, I'm not doing that. But because the system is a flywheel, and our people see the benefit flowing in all di…”
Kleinman: Large-scale M&A in asset management is fraught due to cultural mismatch
“The asset management industry is fraught with bad M&A. It's hard to merge two completely disparate cultures. Tuck-ins are fine, but bringing in big stock mergers are tricky in the asset management industry where your people are your asset.”
Kleinman: Most alternative asset managers scaled enough to go public already are
“There's only a handful of alternative asset managers that have the scale To go public, and the vast majority of them are public already.”
Kleinman: Underwriting Quality Determines Credit Performance, Not Public vs Private Structure
“The ultimate performance through the next cycle is going to be more determined based on the quality of the underwriting than was this a private credit fund or a public credit fund?”
Kleinman: Apollo constantly trades upside for downside protection across asset classes
“We are constantly trading the last percent of upside for downside protection across every asset class that we invest in.”
Kleinman: Private equity faces fourth or fifth year of depressed realizations
“We're going on to year four, year five of meaningfully depressed realizations for the market in general.”
Kleinman: 401(k) Market Is $13 Trillion with Essentially Zero Private Assets
“And for one K is going to open up to private assets. That's a 13 trillion dollar market that has essentially zero private assets in it.”
Kleinman: Private equity grew from under 0.5% of GDP in 1994 to 10–14% today
“Private equity probably represented less than a half a percent of GDP versus the 10, 12, 14% that it is today.”
Kleinman: Apollo Bought Compass Minerals Under 6x EBITDA, Made 5x Return
“We bought it at under six times enterprise value to EBITDA, but because of the nature of that business, much of its business went into highway salt. You were able to scale the business. It was a surprisingly more stable business than you would have thought, an…”
Kleinman: Apollo bought tens of billions in discounted bank debt during GFC
“We were able to approach banks and buy tens of billions of bank debt at a time at deeply discounted prices. We started accumulating enormous amounts of corporate debt.”
Apollo allocates 5% to sub-IG credit and 5% to alternatives in insurance
“Rough round numbers, about five percent would be sub IG credit, and about five percent would be traditional alternatives, private equity, infrastructure, those sorts of equity of other vehicles and structured equity, hybrid equity, things like that.”
Kleinman: Apollo PE held 'near miss reviews' for close-call wins
“When I was leading private equity, we would have what I call near miss review. Not just the deals that went wrong, But the deals that went well, but for the skin of our teeth could have gone the other way.”
Kleinman: Every Apollo employee receives stock comp and citizenship-based bonuses
“Well, for one, it goes back to everybody's bonus to some extent is based on a qualitative, were they good Apollo citizen? Two, every employee at Apollo gets a portion of their comp in Apollo stock, and the stock only goes up if all the ships are rising, not if…”
Kleinman: Apollo rarely used public stock for M&A as originally anticipated
“The one thing that I would have thought we would have done more, having a currency for acquisitions, was one of the reasons we went public. It hasn't materialized in the way we would have thought at the time. We tend to do a better job building our own busines…”
Apollo is expanding into 401(k)s, mutual funds, and ETFs
“In the coming years, we've been vocal Figuring out how we're going to be accessing the four one K market, the traditional asset manager. So the mutual fund market, the ETF market, those are some of the places we're going now.”
Kleinman: Hybrid equity targets low-to-mid-teens net returns with debt-like downside protection
“Hybrid is forms of equity that are more downside protected, so not swinging for the 20% rate of return per year, but low to mid-teens, net rates of return that give you more downside protection, things that look and smell like debt, but have enough equity leve…”