The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Bitar: U.S. restrictions on Venezuelan oil push exports to China
“In the last month or two, there's been a shift in that, more towards restriction of the sale of Venezuelan oil to the U.S., In practice, what it's doing is pushing it to China, which is odd, because that would seem counter to the U.S. Objectives.”
Bitar: Latin American regional platforms command 10x to 14x EBITDA
“When you look at the latest transactions in the past five, six years in Latin America, all these regional guys have gone from like 10 to 14 times EBITDA. And the going in price for these assets is like seven to eight times EBITDA.”
Bitar: Venezuela's 85% GDP Contraction Is Largest Non-War Drop Ever
“So the economy contracted since 2012 until 2020, like 85%. That is the biggest drop in economic activity in any country that is not in a war.”
Bitar: OFAC Authorized European Operators to Export Venezuelan Oil
“OFAC just authorized two European oil operators who operate in Venezuela, ENI and Repsol, to begin exporting back to Europe that had been sanctioned earlier. And they allowed Chevron, the US company who's operating in Venezuela, to have a dialogue with the gov…”
Bitar: US Dollars Account for Over 60% of Venezuelan Transactions
“The government eventually made the dollar legal tender, and currently over 60, 70% of transactions in Venezuela are done in dollars.”
Bitar: Venezuelan oil production has rebounded to one million barrels daily
“We have seen growth in that oil production up to a million barrels of oil.”
Bitar: Venezuelan pharmaceutical market grew 20% to 30% annually
“Health is one of the priorities, and the rate of growth of that market has been 20, 30% per annum for the past three, four years in Venezuela.”
Bitar: All Venezuelan asset pricing has become effectively dollarized
“Within the scope of a year until today, in fact, all of the pricing of all of the assets is dollarized. They may not be listed in dollars, but the underlying amount for pricing everything is in dollars.”
Bitar: 40% of Venezuelan Banking Sector Assets Are in US Dollars
“Actually the assets in the banking sector, 40% of the assets in the banking sector are dollars.”
Bitar: Venezuelan Valuation Multiples Are One-Third of Global Levels
“It's most likely to go up, then go down, particularly because it's beginning to normalize, and multiples are a third of what you have elsewhere in the world.”
Bitar: Venezuelan Operating Margins Have Historically Outpaced Latin America
“Venezuela was traditionally one of the most profitable markets in Latin America in every industry. When we were working in telecoms, margins in telecoms company was like, 40%. The rest of the region was 25. Food was the same, and we still see it to date.”
Bitar: 3x1 grew a Venezuelan pharma asset from #6 to #2
“So we followed that playbook and we began acquiring a company that was the number six in the market. And in the span of a little bit less than three years, it's become the number two pharmaceutical manufacturer. So that's meant about a tripling or quadrupling …”
Bitar: Central American healthcare is growing 10% to 15% annually
“Healthcare is growing like 10 to 15% growth annually, which is very attractive to us.”
Bitar: U.S. remittances account for 20% of GDP in Central America
“20% of many of these countries' GDP are remittances from the U.S. To the countries.”
Bitar: Venezuela Holds World's Largest Oil Reserves at 20%
“Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world. It has more oil than Saudi Arabia. It's got like, 20% of the global share of oil. Saudi Arabia has 17.”
Bitar: Venezuelan Public Equities Trade Under $5,000 Daily Volume
“So you could gain exposure to some of the companies in the public markets, but the volume is probably less than 5000 dollars a day, so you can't build a position.”