The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 36 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Bitar: Perceived investment risk in Venezuela substantially exceeds actual risk
“It was a situation where there was a perceived risk much greater than the real risk, in our view, and a country that was overlooked by investors for understandable reasons, and that created an opportunity where you could find very High quality assets at very a…”
Bitar: 3x1 Partners' portfolio grew 40% annually over four years
“Our portfolio has grown about 40% per annum the last four years”
Bitar: U.S. restrictions on Venezuelan oil push exports to China
“In the last month or two, there's been a shift in that, more towards restriction of the sale of Venezuelan oil to the U.S., In practice, what it's doing is pushing it to China, which is odd, because that would seem counter to the U.S. Objectives.”
Bitar: U.S. tariffs will have minimal impact on Latin America
“So the impact, if you look around the world, which are the regions who are going to be more impacted, Latin America falls under the category of minimal impact.”
Bitar: Venezuelan acquisition entry valuations are currently sub-4x EBITDA
“Now the valuations are sub four times EBITDA.”
Bitar: 3x1 acquired Pfizer's Venezuelan assets at ~3.5x to 4x EBITDA
“And then we subsequently acquired the assets of Pfizer in Venezuela. And then we subsequently last year acquired local assets Of a company called Vivas Pharmaceuticals, and the multiples were all around there.”
Bitar: Latin American regional platforms command 10x to 14x EBITDA
“When you look at the latest transactions in the past five, six years in Latin America, all these regional guys have gone from like 10 to 14 times EBITDA. And the going in price for these assets is like seven to eight times EBITDA.”
Bitar: Latin America will align with the U.S. in multipolar world
“And I think, again, like we said at the beginning, this multipolar world, Latin America will certainly be together with the U.S., and that will mean further growth, integration, opportunities.”
Bitar: 3x1 quintupled average employee compensation across its Venezuelan portfolio
“So our employees and the companies in Venezuela, I think we've Can tuple the average compensation since we began four years ago.”
Bitar: Venezuela's 85% GDP Contraction Is Largest Non-War Drop Ever
“So the economy contracted since 2012 until 2020, like 85%. That is the biggest drop in economic activity in any country that is not in a war.”
Bitar: OFAC Authorized European Operators to Export Venezuelan Oil
“OFAC just authorized two European oil operators who operate in Venezuela, ENI and Repsol, to begin exporting back to Europe that had been sanctioned earlier. And they allowed Chevron, the US company who's operating in Venezuela, to have a dialogue with the gov…”
Bitar: US Dollars Account for Over 60% of Venezuelan Transactions
“The government eventually made the dollar legal tender, and currently over 60, 70% of transactions in Venezuela are done in dollars.”
Bitar: 3B1 Portfolio Revenue Grew 60% in 2021
“On average, our portfolio grew like 60% in revenue last year, 40% again this first quarter, and you see that's basically the beginning of the normalization of economic activity.”
Bitar: Venezuela Will See Big Economic Recovery Once Sanctions Soften
“I mean, we believe the biggest probability event is softening of sanctions and better behavior democratically, and independent of who wins the election, you're gonna have a big economic recovery after the sanctions are softened.”
Bitar: Venezuelan oil production has rebounded to one million barrels daily
“We have seen growth in that oil production up to a million barrels of oil.”
Bitar: Latin American family owners rarely sell foundational trophy assets
“In most of the economies in Latin America where you go, these are like trophy assets that whomever the owner is, normally families, they don't want to trade it. Having the ability to go into a market which is a little bit overlooked or an empty room, as you sa…”
Bitar: Venezuelan pharmaceutical market grew 20% to 30% annually
“Health is one of the priorities, and the rate of growth of that market has been 20, 30% per annum for the past three, four years in Venezuela.”
Bitar: Strategic foreign exits for Venezuelan assets remain a long-term prospect
“For Venezuelan assets, what we believe is the necessary condition for exits is that it becomes a geography where foreign investors are willing to come back in and acquire these strategic assets. What we're looking to do Build those strategic assets in anticipa…”
Bitar: All Venezuelan asset pricing has become effectively dollarized
“Within the scope of a year until today, in fact, all of the pricing of all of the assets is dollarized. They may not be listed in dollars, but the underlying amount for pricing everything is in dollars.”
Bitar: U.S. refining infrastructure ensures long-term Venezuelan oil ties
“Nevertheless, we believe that because of the refining infrastructure in the southern U.S., which is, you know, has been built for Venezuelan crude, that's a natural relationship that should endure in the future, but there's many geopolitical things that are sh…”
Bitar: Economic Power in Latin America Concentrates in Family Business Groups
“Capital markets are not what you have here in the U.S., and so the core of savings and economic power actually lies in families mostly.”
Bitar: 40% of Venezuelan Banking Sector Assets Are in US Dollars
“Actually the assets in the banking sector, 40% of the assets in the banking sector are dollars.”
Bitar: 3B1 Avoids Turnarounds in Venezuela to Isolate Macro Upside
“Because we want the least micro risk that we can, because what we want is the exposure to the macro risk. So we don't want any turnaround situations. We don't want any company in crisis. We don't want a company without management.”
Bitar: Venezuelan Private Equity Deals Trade at 3.5x to 5x EBITDA
“The transactions that we're looking at, I would say they range between three and a half to five times EBITDA, three and a half to four and a half times EBITDA.”
Bitar: Venezuelan Valuation Multiples Are One-Third of Global Levels
“It's most likely to go up, then go down, particularly because it's beginning to normalize, and multiples are a third of what you have elsewhere in the world.”
Bitar: Venezuelan Operating Margins Have Historically Outpaced Latin America
“Venezuela was traditionally one of the most profitable markets in Latin America in every industry. When we were working in telecoms, margins in telecoms company was like, 40%. The rest of the region was 25. Food was the same, and we still see it to date.”
Bitar: Latin American Founders Often Lack US-Style Global Scale Ambition
“Normally we're like, we don't have the, in a positive sense, the ambition that you guys have, like to do things that are at a global scale. So when we began doing business a long time ago, we would think maybe smaller than we should, and just having the capaci…”
Bitar: 3x1 grew a Venezuelan pharma asset from #6 to #2
“So we followed that playbook and we began acquiring a company that was the number six in the market. And in the span of a little bit less than three years, it's become the number two pharmaceutical manufacturer. So that's meant about a tripling or quadrupling …”
Bitar: Latin American branded generics deliver 30% to 35% margins
“Still, they're very profitable, 30 to 35% margins, little capex, so they generally, they generate a lot of cash flow, which is also very relevant to us.”
Bitar: Central American healthcare is growing 10% to 15% annually
“Healthcare is growing like 10 to 15% growth annually, which is very attractive to us.”
Bitar: U.S. remittances account for 20% of GDP in Central America
“20% of many of these countries' GDP are remittances from the U.S. To the countries.”
Bitar: Venezuela Holds World's Largest Oil Reserves at 20%
“Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world. It has more oil than Saudi Arabia. It's got like, 20% of the global share of oil. Saudi Arabia has 17.”
Bitar: Venezuelan Public Equities Trade Under $5,000 Daily Volume
“So you could gain exposure to some of the companies in the public markets, but the volume is probably less than 5000 dollars a day, so you can't build a position.”
Bitar: Venezuelan Per Capita Medicine Consumption Dropped 80%
“When you look at the per capita consumption of medicines in Venezuela, they've dropped like 80%.”