The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Isch: Multi-strategy funds fail when risk models miss frequent tail events
“Most of the time what you're looking at, if you're looking at a predicted beta or a predicted vol number, is a one standard deviation, 68% confidence interval, best guess average of what the next three to six months are going to look like if they looked like t…”
Isch: Heavy equity index concentration is unlikely to change anytime soon
“You don't have to fight that index concentration battle, and that's not something that's necessarily going to change anytime soon.”
Isch: Tight stop-out limits cause PMs to play not to lose
“When you start inching towards B, you start behaving differently. Instead of playing to win, you might just be playing not to lose. And as an allocator, when you have a PM that's doing that, you're probably not getting the process that you underwrote.”
Isch: Wellington operates on the lower end of multi-strat leverage deployment
“If you look at the spectrum of what's out there, we're probably going to be on the lower end of the amount of leverage we deploy. We want to be on the client friendly side across multiple dimensions, one of which is liquidity. And we want to be able to stay in…”
Isch: Wellington uses center book primarily for risk alignment, not alpha
“We haven't, for the most part, leaned into it as an alpha enhancing tool. There is that capability. We have the transparency, but the primary focus of it is absolutely to make sure that our risks are aligned where we believe the risk is intentional and that it…”