The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Citrone: US Core Inflation Has Peaked but Won't Fall Fast Enough
“I actually think inflation is rolling over. It's just going to take longer to come down to the acceptable levels, but it's rolling over. It's peaked in our view. The real risk on the headline is energy prices and maybe food prices. I mean, maybe headline can g…”
Turkey Is the World's Best Short; CDS Will Top 1,000 Bps
“We think maybe the best short in the world is Turkey right now. Turkey CDS has gone from about 400 over now to 800 over. We think it's going well over a thousand. The country is going to experience a traditional currency and credit crisis as we've seen in EM w…”
The Bank of Japan's Yield Curve Control Peg Cannot Hold
“In fact, I think one of the best opportunities in the world, quite frankly, is in Japan, where they have the YCC program, where they have tenure rates pegged to 25 basis points, zero to 25. There's no way that's going to hold in this environment.”
Citrone: Shorting Long-End Japanese Debt Offers 50 to 75 Basis Points
“That's one of the best fixed income shorts in the world today. He may not make a hundred basis points, but it's 50 or 75 basis points to be made in the long end on the short side there, 10 years beyond.”
Citrone: US Will Enter Mild Recession by Late 2022 or Early 2023
“I think it'll be a mild recession. I think we'll be there very quickly by the end of the year, early next year in the US.”
Citrone: Europe will enter recession within months if not already
“I think Europe is, if not in recession now, be in recession within a few months.”