The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Kelly: Private Wealth Will Be the Fastest Growing Source of Alternatives Capital
“The demand from private wealth will be the fastest growing source of capital into alternatives for the foreseeable future.”
Mike Kelly Nov 24, 2025 ▶ 53:54 Michael Kelly – Democratizing Access to the Middle Market at Future Standard (EP.473)
Prediction Held up
Kelly: Private Credit Floating-Rate Yields Will Fall as Base Rates Drop
“The expectations have to be base rates are coming down. Distribution rates and yields will come down in those private credit floating rate vehicles.”
Mike Kelly Nov 24, 2025 ▶ 43:08 Michael Kelly – Democratizing Access to the Middle Market at Future Standard (EP.473)
Assertion Contradicted
Kelly: Evergreen Funds Drive Secondary Demand for Endowment Private Equity
“If you take endowments that are looking at selling some of their private equity and venture positions, the primary demand for those secondary positions are coming from evergreen private equity vehicles.”
Mike Kelly Nov 24, 2025 ▶ 55:05 Michael Kelly – Democratizing Access to the Middle Market at Future Standard (EP.473)
Assertion Supported
Kelly: Secondaries Volume Represents Just 2% of $10 Trillion Private Equity Market
“In the secondaries market, we have a 10 trillion dollar private equity market globally. Only two hundred billion dollars of volume in private equity secondaries this year. It's two percent of the stock”
Mike Kelly Nov 24, 2025 ▶ 58:24 Michael Kelly – Democratizing Access to the Middle Market at Future Standard (EP.473)
Assertion Supported
Kelly: 1990s Hedge Funds Were Funded Primarily by Family Offices
“When you're in the nineties, you're still at a point where it was mostly family office capital. Invest in these types of strategies.”
Mike Kelly Nov 24, 2025 ▶ 12:55 Michael Kelly – Democratizing Access to the Middle Market at Future Standard (EP.473)
Assertion Partly supported
Kelly: 200,000 Private Companies Generate Between $10 Million and $1 Billion
“They've been operating in the middle market space of private equity, which the middle market's a broad definition of ten million to a billion dollars of revenues, private companies, there's 200,000 of them.”
Mike Kelly Nov 24, 2025 ▶ 33:11 Michael Kelly – Democratizing Access to the Middle Market at Future Standard (EP.473)
Assertion Supported
Kelly: BDCs Shifted from a Venture Model to Private Credit Post-GFC
“BDCs originally were created through a congressional act in 1980 as a way to bring capital into private businesses in the United States. The original BDCs back then was more of a venture capital model. It was really only after the great financial crisis that B…”
Mike Kelly Nov 24, 2025 ▶ 38:03 Michael Kelly – Democratizing Access to the Middle Market at Future Standard (EP.473)
Assertion Supported
Kelly: Defined Contribution Retirement Plans Hold $12 Trillion to $13 Trillion
“Defined contribution is 12, 13 trillion of assets.”
Mike Kelly Nov 24, 2025 ▶ 47:25 Michael Kelly – Democratizing Access to the Middle Market at Future Standard (EP.473)
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