The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Cembalest: Trump administration will post severe midterm losses despite strong economy
“I think this is the first administration that's going to post a double bogey At a time of strong stock markets and strong employment with respect to the losses they sustain in the midterm election.”
Except for 1973, market impacts of military conflicts dissipate within four months
“With the exception of the 1970 to 73 Arab-Israeli conflict which led to an oil embargo and a stagflation, almost every single military conflict was gone from the markets within three to four months. Where the business cycle was at that point the primary driver…”
Electricity accounts for just 17% to 18% of global energy consumption
“Electricity is only 17 or 18% of all global energy consumption.”
Cembalest: Elon Musk's Tesla Pay Is an Outlier Compared to Major Indices
“Last week, I did a post on Tesla, a story in pictures, which was kind of a brutal and cruel assessment of everything you're going on at Tesla, including, by the way, a chart on CEO compensation that shows how much Elon Musk gets paid for a loss-making enterpri…”
More than half of Italian high-yield bonds yield less than U.S. Treasuries
“More than half of all the high yield bonds issued in Italy have yields that are tighter than U.S. Treasuries.”
Cembalest: Mexican Assets Became Top Performers in Decade Post-1994 Devaluation
“And in 1994, after the Mexican peso devaluation, you couldn't sell a peso denominated asset or a dollar denominated asset with exposure to Mexico to anybody, and over the subsequent decade, all sorts of Mexican denominated assets were among the best performing…”
Cembalest: Mexican government bond underwriting fees fell from 200 bps to zero
“If you were underwriting a Mexican government bond, you could still get paid a point and a half to two points in underwriting fees. Now you don't do it for anything except leave cable credit, and there's no fees”