The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Cembalest: US municipal restructurings will rise continuously without federal intervention
“But absent intervention from the Fed or the Treasury, which I have a 95% confidence won't happen, we're gonna have Can you continuously rising stream of restructurings at the municipal level over the next few years?”
Bondholders lose more than pensioners in every US municipal restructuring to date
“And in the seven or eight restructurings that have happened so far at the municipal level, that's exactly what's happened. Every time there's been a pensioner and retiree healthcare write down, the bondholders lost more as a percentage of par.”
U.S. entitlement to discretionary spending ratio will hit 5:1 within a decade
“Because in 1970, the country spent the same amount on entitlement spending As it did on all of the rest of the non-entitlement discretionary spending. And so that one to one ratio became one and a half to one, then two to one. And now it's three to one, and it…”