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The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕
3statements match
3resolved → 0open claims → 0supported → 3contradicted →

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Papic: S&P 500 could easily reach 7,000 by 2024
“I think we can easily be at 7000 SPX by 2024.”
Marko Papic Oct 26, 2020 ▶ 23:26 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Alpha at Clocktower Group (Capital Allocators, EP.161)
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Papic: There is basically no way the US will not get an Iran deal
“There's basically no way that we will not get an Iran deal.”
Marko Papic Feb 28, 2022 ▶ 20:43 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Shock in a Multi-Polar World (Capital Allocators, EP.237)
Assertion Contradicted
Papic: Only Two Emerging Market Macro Hedge Funds Exist Today
“There are two macro hedge funds dedicated to emerging markets today. Two of them. There's none doing commodities.”
Marko Papic Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 42:48 Geopolitical Uncertainty – James Aitken, Louis-Vincent Gave, and Marko Papic (EP.440)
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