The Ledger
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why aren't all 1 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Baumgartner: 2014–2018 equity returns doubled consensus forecasts while volatility halved
“Back in 2013, 20 14, you've got bears projecting low returns... You've got folks like Goldman and JP Morgan, and the folks who publish capital market expectations, and you see, eh, equities, seven percent annualized return, 15% vol... Now, you fast forward fiv…”